Primeira Liga
Gil Vicente vs 
Maritimo Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 41.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 65.0% for over 7.5 to 15.5% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.2%. Head to head on corners, Gil Vicente are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.3%, with a level count at 10.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 65.0% | 35.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 15.5% | 84.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
67.5%
52.4%
38.3%
54.0%
37.9%
24.7%
Corner handicap
| Gil Vicente line | Gil Vicente | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| -0.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| +0.5 | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| +1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
This season (2026/27)
3.6Gil Vicente corners won per game5.4Gil Vicente corners conceded per game3.0Maritimo corners won per game4.3Maritimo corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Gil Vicente.
In-depth analysis
41.6%Over 9.5 corners52.4%Gil Vicente over 4.5 corners37.9%Maritimo over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Gil Vicente over 4.5 corners sits at 52.4% and Maritimo at 37.9%. This season Gil Vicente have averaged 3.6 corners won a game and Maritimo 3.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Gil Vicente vs Maritimo?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 41.6% for Gil Vicente vs Maritimo.
Which team will win the corner count in Gil Vicente vs Maritimo?
The model rates Gil Vicente to win the corner count at 54.3%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How many corners do Gil Vicente and Maritimo average this season?
Gil Vicente have won 3.6 corners a game this season and Maritimo 3.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
