Primeira Liga
Guimaraes vs 
Moreirense Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 43.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 67.3% for over 7.5 to 17.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.3%. Head to head on corners, Guimaraes are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.6%, with a level count at 10.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 9.5 corners | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| 10.5 corners | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.3% | 82.7% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
70.9%
56.4%
42.3%
53.2%
37.0%
24.0%
Corner handicap
| Guimaraes line | Guimaraes | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| -1.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| -0.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| +0.5 | 67.6% | 32.4% |
This season (2026/27)
6.2Guimaraes corners won per game3.3Guimaraes corners conceded per game2.5Moreirense corners won per game5.5Moreirense corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Guimaraes.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
44.3%Over 9.5 corners56.4%Guimaraes over 4.5 corners37.0%Moreirense over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Guimaraes over 4.5 corners sits at 56.4% and Moreirense at 37.0%. This season Guimaraes have averaged 6.2 corners won a game and Moreirense 2.5.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 44.3% for Guimaraes vs Moreirense.
Which team will win the corner count in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
The model rates Guimaraes to win the corner count at 57.6%, with a level count at 10.0%.
How many corners do Guimaraes and Moreirense average this season?
Guimaraes have won 6.2 corners a game this season and Moreirense 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
