Primeira Liga
Estrela vs 
Academico Viseu Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 45.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 69.1% for over 7.5 to 18.8% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.4%. On the corner count, Estrela are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 49.0%, with a level count at 10.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 8.5 corners | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| 9.5 corners | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| 11.5 corners | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.8% | 81.2% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
66.8%
51.6%
37.5%
61.1%
45.3%
31.4%
Corner handicap
| Estrela line | Estrela | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| -0.5 | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| +0.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| +1.5 | 69.0% | 31.0% |
This season (2026/27)
3.8Estrela corners won per game4.7Estrela corners conceded per game2.8Academico Viseu corners won per game5.3Academico Viseu corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Estrela.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
46.4%Over 9.5 corners51.6%Estrela over 4.5 corners45.3%Academico Viseu over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Estrela over 4.5 corners sits at 51.6% and Academico Viseu at 45.3%. This season Estrela have averaged 3.8 corners won a game and Academico Viseu 2.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 46.4% for Estrela vs Academico Viseu.
Which team will win the corner count in Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
The model rates Estrela to win the corner count at 49.0%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How many corners do Estrela and Academico Viseu average this season?
Estrela have won 3.8 corners a game this season and Academico Viseu 2.8.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
