Primeira Liga
Estoril vs 
Casa Pia Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 65.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 82.3% for over 2.5 to 29.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.2%. Head to head on cards, Casa Pia are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 19.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 82.3% | 17.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 29.2% | 70.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
63.3%
36.4%
67.3%
40.9%
Card handicap
| Estoril line | Estoril | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.8% | 79.2% |
| -0.5 | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| +0.5 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| +1.5 | 74.4% | 25.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.5% | 15.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 63.3% | 36.7% |
This season (2026/27)
2.8Estoril cards per game12.0Estoril fouls per game2.3Casa Pia cards per game11.5Casa Pia fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Estoril vs Casa Pia. The model leans toward Casa Pia for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
65.2%Over 3.5 cards11.6%Any red card63.3%Estoril over 1.5 cards67.3%Casa Pia over 1.5 cards74.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Estoril over 1.5 cards sits at 63.3% and Casa Pia at 67.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.6% (Estoril 4.5%, Casa Pia 7.4%). This season Estoril have averaged 2.8 cards a game and Casa Pia 2.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 65.2% for Estoril vs Casa Pia.
Will there be a red card in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
The model rates Casa Pia to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 19.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
