Primeira Liga
Alverca vs 
Rio Ave Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 62.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.6% for over 2.5 to 26.8% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.4%. Head to head on cards, Rio Ave are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.3%, with a level count at 19.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 26.8% | 73.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
60.1%
33.0%
66.9%
40.4%
Card handicap
| Alverca line | Alverca | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| -0.5 | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| +0.5 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| +1.5 | 73.1% | 26.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 55.4% | 44.6% |
This season (2026/27)
2.5Alverca cards per game13.0Alverca fouls per game1.5Rio Ave cards per game9.3Rio Ave fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Alverca vs Rio Ave. Slightly more cards are projected for Rio Ave for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
62.7%Over 3.5 cards14.0%Any red card60.1%Alverca over 1.5 cards66.9%Rio Ave over 1.5 cards68.1%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Alverca over 1.5 cards sits at 60.1% and Rio Ave at 66.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.0% (Alverca 5.7%, Rio Ave 8.8%). This season Alverca have averaged 2.5 cards a game and Rio Ave 1.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Alverca vs Rio Ave?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 62.7% for Alverca vs Rio Ave.
Will there be a red card in Alverca vs Rio Ave?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Alverca vs Rio Ave?
The model rates Rio Ave to pick up more cards at 45.3%, with a level count at 19.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
