Primeira Liga
Estrela vs 
Academico Viseu Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 70.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 85.5% for over 2.5 to 34.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.0%. Head to head on cards, Academico Viseu are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.5%, with a level count at 18.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.5% | 14.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 34.5% | 65.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
66.4%
39.8%
71.2%
45.6%
Card handicap
| Estrela line | Estrela | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| -0.5 | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| +0.5 | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| +1.5 | 72.9% | 27.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 86.2% | 13.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 77.3% | 22.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 66.1% | 33.9% |
This season (2026/27)
2.5Estrela cards per game11.5Estrela fouls per game2.8Academico Viseu cards per game13.3Academico Viseu fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Estrela vs Academico Viseu. Slightly more cards are projected for Academico Viseu for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
70.2%Over 3.5 cards16.8%Any red card66.4%Estrela over 1.5 cards71.2%Academico Viseu over 1.5 cards77.3%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Estrela over 1.5 cards sits at 66.4% and Academico Viseu at 71.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.8% (Estrela 11.8%, Academico Viseu 5.7%). This season Estrela have averaged 2.5 cards a game and Academico Viseu 2.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 70.2% for Estrela vs Academico Viseu.
Will there be a red card in Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
The model rates a red card for either side at 16.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
The model rates Academico Viseu to pick up more cards at 44.5%, with a level count at 18.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,399 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
