Primeira Liga
Gil Vicente vs 
Maritimo Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 66.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 82.9% for over 2.5 to 30.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.3%. On the card count, Maritimo are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 19.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 30.2% | 69.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
64.6%
37.9%
67.4%
41.0%
Card handicap
| Gil Vicente line | Gil Vicente | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.6% | 78.4% |
| -0.5 | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| +0.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| +1.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 85.3% | 14.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 64.5% | 35.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Gil Vicente cards per game14.6Gil Vicente fouls per game2.0Maritimo cards per game15.8Maritimo fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Gil Vicente vs Maritimo. The model leans toward Maritimo for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
66.2%Over 3.5 cards10.9%Any red card64.6%Gil Vicente over 1.5 cards67.4%Maritimo over 1.5 cards75.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Gil Vicente over 1.5 cards sits at 64.6% and Maritimo at 67.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.9% (Gil Vicente 4.3%, Maritimo 6.9%). This season Gil Vicente have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Maritimo 2.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Gil Vicente vs Maritimo?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 66.2% for Gil Vicente vs Maritimo.
Will there be a red card in Gil Vicente vs Maritimo?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Gil Vicente vs Maritimo?
The model rates Maritimo to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 19.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
