AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
PSV EindhovenPSV EindhovenWLWLD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1017:45UK
Willem IIWillem IILLLLL

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined64.9%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined35.1%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards35.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II. Slightly more cards are projected for Willem II for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 57.5% 42.5%
3.5 cards 35.1% 64.9%
4.5 cards 18.4% 81.6%
5.5 cards 8.4% 91.6%

Who picks up more cards

PSV Eindhoven
26.2%
Level
23.3%
Willem II
50.5%

Team cards lines

PSV Eindhoven

Over 1.5
34.3%
Over 2.5
12.4%

Willem II

Over 1.5
53.0%
Over 2.5
26.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is PSV Eindhoven's; Willem II gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

PSV Eindhoven line PSV Eindhoven Willem II
-1.5 10.7% 89.3%
-0.5 26.2% 73.8%
+0.5 49.5% 50.5%
+1.5 72.1% 27.9%

Red card

Any red card4.9%
PSV Eindhoven red card2.2%
Willem II red card2.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 42.1% 57.9%
22.5 fouls 27.6% 72.4%
24.5 fouls 16.4% 83.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
PSV Eindhoven S. Gozubuyuk 2 5.5 3.5
Willem II Dennis Higler 2 3.0 2.5
Willem II Jannick van der Laan 2 1.0 0.0
Willem II Robin Hensgens 2 3.0 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means PSV Eindhoven at home and Willem II away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Willem IIWillem II
Statistic
PSV Eindhoven
Willem II
Cards per game at this venue
·
1.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.3

Yellow cards per game
1.3
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.8

Matches with card data
4
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 35.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 57.5% for over 2.5 to 8.4% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.5%. Head to head on cards, Willem II are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.5%, with a level count at 23.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 cards sits at 34.3% and Willem II at 53.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 4.9% (PSV Eindhoven 2.2%, Willem II 2.7%). PSV Eindhoven’s most frequent referee this season, S. Gozubuyuk, has averaged 5.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

35.1%Over 3.5 cards
4.9%Any red card
50.5%Most cards: Willem II
34.3%PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 cards
53.0%Willem II over 1.5 cards
27.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 35.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherS. Gozubuyuk, PSV Eindhoven’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 4.9%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianWillem II are the pick to collect more cards at 50.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Willem IIWillem II
Statistic
PSV Eindhoven
Willem II
fouls per game
10.0
10.5

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 35.1% for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II.
Will there be a red card in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
The model rates a red card for either side at 4.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
The model rates Willem II to pick up more cards at 50.5%, with a level count at 23.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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EredivisiePSV Eindhoven fixtures and statsWillem II fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.