ChampionshipPortsmouth vs Blackburn Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.9% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Portsmouth have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Blackburn 1.2 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 39.8% for over 2.5 and 67.1% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 2.3 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
| 0-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
| 1-2 | 6.8% |
| 0-2 | 5.5% |
Score probability grid
| Portsmouth \ Blackburn | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 12% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Portsmouth goals, columns = Blackburn. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.9%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
46.6%Both Teams to Score39.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 39.8% for three or more goals and 67.1% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Portsmouth favoured at 40.2%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Portsmouth 2 · 1 draws · Blackburn 1 · 2.3 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
The model's most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Blackburn is 1-1 at 13.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Championship, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
