ChampionshipPortsmouth vs Blackburn Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 60.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Portsmouth have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Blackburn 1.2 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 39.8% for over 2.5 and 67.1% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 2.3 goals a game. Portsmouth have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Blackburn in 4 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 19.6% | 80.4% |
| 4.5 goals | 8.1% | 91.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 2.9% | 97.1% |
Team goal lines
71.1%
35.2%
12.9%
64.6%
27.8%
8.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 72.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 8.6% | 91.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 13.1% | 86.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Portsmouth goals scored per game1.1Portsmouth goals conceded per game42.9%Portsmouth Over 2.5 rate0.7Portsmouth 1st-half goals per game1.4Blackburn goals scored per game1.4Blackburn goals conceded per game85.7%Blackburn Over 2.5 rate0.4Blackburn 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
46.6%Both Teams to Score39.8%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 39.8% for three or more goals and 67.1% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Portsmouth favoured at 40.2%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Portsmouth to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Portsmouth 2 · 1 draws · Blackburn 1 · 2.3 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 39.8% for Portsmouth vs Blackburn.
Will there be a first-half goal in Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 64.4%.
How often have Portsmouth gone over 2.5 recently?
Portsmouth have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Blackburn in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,257 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 41.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
