Portsmouth vs Blackburn: model prediction
ChampionshipWLLWD
LDLLW
Portsmouth or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Over 1.5 goals
Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Win probability · fair 2.49
Top signals
Model read
Portsmouth versus Blackburn on 19 September 2026 tilts towards Portsmouth in our numbers (40%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 40% with both teams to score at 47%. • Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Portsmouth against W2 D1 L3 for Blackburn. • History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 2 wins for Portsmouth, 1 draws and 1 for Blackburn at 2.2 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
40.2%
29.7%
30.2%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Portsmouth 2 · 1 draws · Blackburn 1 · 2.3 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
42.9%85.7%
42.9%85.7%
42.9%14.3%
League averages this season: 2.76 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 60% · BTTS in 64%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 63.4% | Over 24.5 | 50.9% | Over 26.5 | 38.6% | Over 28.5 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Portsmouth | 65.4% | Most: Blackburn | 28.9% | ||||
| Portsmouth Over 13.2 | 51.4% | Blackburn Over 13.2 | 25.6% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 63.9% | Over 7.5 | 50.6% | Over 8.5 | 37.9% | Over 9.5 | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Portsmouth | 51.9% | Most: Blackburn | 34.8% | ||||
| Portsmouth Over 4.2 | 41.0% | Blackburn Over 4.2 | 29.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 75.4% | Over 3.5 | 55.6% | Over 4.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Portsmouth | 22.8% | Most: Blackburn | 58.3% | ||
| Portsmouth Over 1.8 | 44.4% | Blackburn Over 1.8 | 70.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 35.4% |
|---|---|
| Blackburn clean sheet | 28.9% |
| Portsmouth win to nil | 24.4% |
| Blackburn win to nil | 18.0% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 40.2% | draw | 29.7% | away | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 69.9% | 12 | 70.3% | X2 | 59.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 57.1% | away | 42.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 46.6% | no | 53.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 35.4% | away | 28.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 24.5% | away | 18.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.2% | home_by_2 | 11.9% | home_by_3plus | 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.5% | away_by_2 | 8.3% | away_by_3plus | 3.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.9% | 0-1 | 10.0% | 0-2 | 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.9% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | 1-1 | 13.9% | 1-2 | 6.8% |
| 1-3 | 2.4% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 7.9% | 2-1 | 8.2% | 2-2 | 4.3% |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.3% | 3-1 | 3.4% | 3-2 | 1.8% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.0% | 4-1 | 1.1% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.1% | under_0.5 | 10.9% | over_1.5 | 67.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 32.9% | over_2.5 | 39.8% | under_2.5 | 60.2% |
| over_3.5 | 19.6% | under_3.5 | 80.4% | over_4.5 | 8.1% |
| under_4.5 | 91.9% | over_5.5 | 2.9% | under_5.5 | 97.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 71.1% | under_0.5 | 28.9% | over_1.5 | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.8% | over_2.5 | 12.9% | under_2.5 | 87.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 64.6% | under_0.5 | 35.4% | over_1.5 | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.2% | over_2.5 | 8.7% | under_2.5 | 91.3% |
most
| home | 40.2% | draw | 29.7% | away | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.1% | away_+2.5 | 93.9% | home_-1.5 | 18.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 82.0% | home_-0.5 | 40.2% | away_+0.5 | 59.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.9% | away_-0.5 | 30.2% | home_+1.5 | 88.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.7% | home_+2.5 | 96.6% | away_-2.5 | 3.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.9% | exact_1 | 22.0% | exact_2 | 27.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.2% | exact_4 | 11.5% | exact_5 | 5.2% |
| exact_6 | 2.0% | exact_7plus | 0.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 29.3% | draw | 45.7% | away | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.4% | under_0.5 | 35.6% | over_1.5 | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.4% | over_2.5 | 8.6% | under_2.5 | 91.4% |
btts
| yes | 16.2% | no | 83.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 35.6% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 19.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.5% | exact_4plus | 2.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.8% | draw | 40.9% | away | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 71.2% | under_0.5 | 28.8% | over_1.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.6% | over_2.5 | 13.1% | under_2.5 | 86.9% |
btts
| yes | 21.3% | no | 78.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 23.3% | H/D | 4.6% | H/A | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.4% | D/D | 18.7% | D/A | 11.6% |
| A/H | 2.0% | A/D | 5.1% | A/A | 18.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 80.7% | under_7.5 | 19.3% | over_8.5 | 70.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 29.3% | over_9.5 | 59.5% | under_9.5 | 40.5% |
| over_10.5 | 47.8% | under_10.5 | 52.2% | over_11.5 | 36.7% |
| under_11.5 | 63.3% | over_12.5 | 27.0% | under_12.5 | 73.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.7% | under_3.5 | 20.3% | over_4.5 | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 34.0% | over_5.5 | 51.2% | under_5.5 | 48.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 65.8% | under_3.5 | 34.2% | over_4.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.1% | over_5.5 | 33.5% | under_5.5 | 66.5% |
most
| home | 56.6% | draw | 10.1% | away | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.6% | away_+3.5 | 73.4% | home_-1.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.0% | home_-0.5 | 56.6% | away_+0.5 | 43.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.7% | away_-0.5 | 33.3% | home_+1.5 | 75.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.3% | home_+3.5 | 89.0% | away_-3.5 | 11.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 63.4% | under_22.5 | 36.6% | over_24.5 | 50.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 49.1% | over_26.5 | 38.6% | under_26.5 | 61.4% |
| over_28.5 | 27.6% | under_28.5 | 72.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 75.4% | under_10.5 | 24.6% | over_12.5 | 59.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 40.3% | over_14.5 | 43.3% | under_14.5 | 56.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.2% | under_10.5 | 48.8% | over_12.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 66.8% | over_14.5 | 19.2% | under_14.5 | 80.8% |
most
| home | 65.4% | draw | 5.7% | away | 28.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 40.3% | away_+4.5 | 59.7% | home_-2.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.0% | home_-0.5 | 65.4% | away_+0.5 | 34.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.1% | away_-0.5 | 28.9% | home_+2.5 | 81.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.1% | home_+4.5 | 88.4% | away_-4.5 | 11.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 63.9% | under_6.5 | 36.1% | over_7.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 49.4% | over_8.5 | 37.9% | under_8.5 | 62.1% |
| over_9.5 | 26.8% | under_9.5 | 73.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 58.8% | under_3.5 | 41.2% | over_4.5 | 41.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.0% | over_5.5 | 26.2% | under_5.5 | 73.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 46.6% | under_3.5 | 53.4% | over_4.5 | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 70.9% | over_5.5 | 16.5% | under_5.5 | 83.5% |
most
| home | 51.9% | draw | 13.3% | away | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.5% | away_+2.5 | 73.5% | home_-0.5 | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.1% | home_+0.5 | 65.2% | away_-0.5 | 34.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.7% | away_-2.5 | 14.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 75.4% | under_2.5 | 24.6% | over_3.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 44.4% | over_4.5 | 36.1% | under_4.5 | 63.9% |
| over_5.5 | 20.7% | under_5.5 | 79.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 44.4% | under_1.5 | 55.6% | over_2.5 | 19.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 80.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 70.1% | under_1.5 | 29.9% | over_2.5 | 44.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 55.8% |
most
| home | 22.8% | draw | 18.9% | away | 58.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 10.1% | away_+1.5 | 89.9% | home_-0.5 | 22.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 77.2% | home_+0.5 | 41.7% | away_-0.5 | 58.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 62.4% | away_-1.5 | 37.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 59.5% | under_20.5 | 40.5% | over_22.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 56.2% | over_24.5 | 29.4% | under_24.5 | 70.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 54.2% | under_9.5 | 45.8% | over_11.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 68.1% | over_13.5 | 15.7% | under_13.5 | 84.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 72.3% | under_9.5 | 27.7% | over_11.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 48.7% | over_13.5 | 31.2% | under_13.5 | 68.8% |
most
| home | 32.7% | draw | 7.5% | away | 59.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 14.7% | away_+3.5 | 85.3% | home_-0.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.4% | home_+2.5 | 56.0% | away_-2.5 | 44.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 7.4% | no | 92.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.3% | no | 96.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.3% | no | 95.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Portsmouth predictions · Blackburn predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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