Paderborn 1-0 Hamburg expected goals (xg): our prediction vs the result
Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.
xG created per game · Last 6 matches
xG created per game · Last 6 matches
Result
Paderborn1-0Hamburg
The match produced 1.36 xG for Paderborn and 0.42 xG for Hamburg, against a final score of 1-0. The chances and the scoreline broadly agreed.
Expected Goals (xG)
Paderborn have created 1.09 xG and scored 0.83 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Hamburg have created 1.19 xG and scored 1.00 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.
Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.
Recent xG per game
Recorded recent matches.
Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
L
L
W
L
D
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
L
L
W
W
W
3 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Match outlook
The model leans Paderborn to win.
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Players to watch
Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.
PaderbornPaderborn (1)
Rayan Philippe
HamburgHamburg (1)
Terem Igobor Moffi
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
