AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
AugsburgAugsburgDLDLD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1014:30UK9°C · Cloudy
FreiburgFreiburgWDWLL

Augsburg vs Freiburg xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Augsburg1.79

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Freiburg1.65

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Augsburg have created 1.79 xG and scored 2.33 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Freiburg have created 1.65 xG and scored 2.00 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

AugsburgAugsburg

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

FreiburgFreiburg
Statistic
Augsburg
Freiburg
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.79
1.65

xG conceded per game
2.69
1.40

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

AugsburgAugsburgLast 5
D
Draw · 2-2
L
Loss · 2-3
D
Draw · 2-2
L
Loss · 3-4
D
Draw · 1-1

0 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses

FreiburgFreiburgLast 5
W
Win · 5-0
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 2-1
L
Loss · 1-2
L
Loss · 1-3

2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2AugsburgAugsburg wins
2Draws
1FreiburgFreiburg wins
3.0Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
AugsburgAugsburg
2 – 2
FreiburgFreiburg
FreiburgFreiburg
1 – 3
AugsburgAugsburg
AugsburgAugsburg
0 – 0
FreiburgFreiburg
FreiburgFreiburg
3 – 1
AugsburgAugsburg
AugsburgAugsburg
2 – 1
FreiburgFreiburg

Match outlook

PickAugsburg43.3%
Draw24.7%
Freiburg32.0%

The model leans Augsburg to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

43.3%Favoured: Augsburg
64.4%Both Teams to Score
62.6%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

AugsburgAugsburg (1)
Michael Gregoritsch
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
25.4%
3.94
1+ shot on target
49.6%
2.02
2+ shots
45.5%
2.20
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.99
On target1.33
Goals0.57
FreiburgFreiburg (1)
Igor Matanovic
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
25.3%
3.95
1+ shot on target
47.7%
2.10
2+ shots
49.0%
2.04
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.28
On target1.29
Goals0.58

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaAugsburg fixtures and statsFreiburg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.