AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
Werder BremenWerder BremenDWDDW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1014:30UK12°C · Cloudy
HoffenheimHoffenheimWLLWW

Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Werder Bremen1.80

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Hoffenheim2.18

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Werder Bremen have created 1.80 xG and scored 2.33 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Hoffenheim have created 2.18 xG and scored 2.00 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

Werder BremenWerder Bremen

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

HoffenheimHoffenheim
Statistic
Werder Bremen
Hoffenheim
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.80
2.18

xG conceded per game
1.63
1.45

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

Werder BremenWerder BremenLast 5
D
Draw · 1-1
W
Win · 3-2
D
Draw · 2-2
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 3-2

2 wins · 3 draws · 0 losses

HoffenheimHoffenheimLast 5
W
Win · 2-1
L
Loss · 1-3
L
Loss · 2-3
W
Win · 2-1
W
Win · 3-0

3 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1Werder BremenWerder Bremen wins
0Draws
4HoffenheimHoffenheim wins
3.4Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
HoffenheimHoffenheim
1 – 0
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
0 – 2
HoffenheimHoffenheim
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
1 – 3
HoffenheimHoffenheim
HoffenheimHoffenheim
3 – 4
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
HoffenheimHoffenheim
2 – 1
Werder BremenWerder Bremen

Match outlook

PickWerder Bremen40.3%
Draw24.0%
Hoffenheim35.7%

The model leans Werder Bremen to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

40.3%Favoured: Werder Bremen
65.1%Both Teams to Score
63.3%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

Werder BremenWerder Bremen (1)
Niclas Füllkrug
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
21.2%
4.72
1+ shot on target
46.1%
2.17
2+ shots
35.2%
2.84
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.39
On target1.19
Goals0.46
HoffenheimHoffenheim (1)
Adam Hlozek
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
23.9%
4.18
1+ shot on target
55.8%
1.79
2+ shots
61.0%
1.64
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.10
On target1.23
Goals0.41

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)

Elversberg vs Mainz expected goals (xg) predictionAugsburg vs Freiburg expected goals (xg) predictionLeverkusen vs Stuttgart expected goals (xg) predictionBorussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn expected goals (xg) predictionSchalke 04 vs RB Leipzig expected goals (xg) predictionBayern Munich vs Dortmund expected goals (xg) prediction

Related

BundesligaWerder Bremen fixtures and statsHoffenheim fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.