AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
PaderbornPaderbornLLWLD
Full time1-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1014:30UK11°C · Cloudy
HamburgHamburgLLWWW

Paderborn 1-0 Hamburg cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.1%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.9%

Result

Paderborn1-0Hamburg
3 yellow cardsPaderborn 1, Hamburg 2
0 red cardsPaderborn 0, Hamburg 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 50.1% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 87.0% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards49.9%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Martin Petersen

Recorded match referee.

Martin Petersen in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 19 4
Goals 3.58 Not available
Yellow cards 4.26 Not available
Red cards 0.05 Not available
Corners 12.4 Not available
Fouls 23.4 Not available
Both teams scored 58% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 68% Not available
Home wins 58% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Paderborn vs Hamburg 1-0 1 No 3 0 9 27
11 Oct 2026 Freiburg vs Schalke 04 2-1 3 Yes 2 1 9 24
18 Sep 2026 Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt2. Bundesliga 5-1 6 Yes 5 0 13 28
5 Sep 2026 M'gladbach vs Elversberg 3-4 7 Yes 4 0 17 27
9 May 2026 Holstein Kiel vs Magdeburg2. Bundesliga 1-3 4 Yes 4 0 16 24
25 Apr 2026 Mainz vs Bayern Munich 3-4 7 Yes 3 0 8 24
4 Apr 2026 Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg 6-3 9 Yes 4 0 14 19
7 Mar 2026 RB Leipzig vs Augsburg 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 14 17
22 Feb 2026 Hannover vs Dresden2. Bundesliga 0-0 0 No 5 0 11 28
14 Feb 2026 Ein Frankfurt vs M'gladbach 3-0 3 No 5 0 10 22

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Paderborn vs Hamburg. Slightly more cards are projected for Paderborn for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.9% 29.1%
3.5 cards 49.9% 50.1%
4.5 cards 30.6% 69.4%
5.5 cards 16.5% 83.5%

Who picks up more cards

Paderborn
39.9%
Level
21.7%
Hamburg
38.4%

Team cards lines

Paderborn

Over 1.5
55.3%
Over 2.5
28.4%

Hamburg

Over 1.5
54.1%
Over 2.5
27.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Paderborn's; Hamburg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Paderborn line Paderborn Hamburg
-1.5 21.3% 78.7%
-0.5 39.9% 60.1%
+0.5 61.6% 38.4%
+1.5 79.9% 20.1%

Red card

Any red card13.0%
Paderborn red card7.4%
Hamburg red card6.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 60.7% 39.3%
22.5 fouls 48.4% 51.6%
24.5 fouls 36.7% 63.3%
PaderbornPaderborn

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Paderborn at home and Hamburg away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

HamburgHamburg
Statistic
Paderborn
Hamburg
Yellow cards per game
1.4
1.2

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.6
·

Matches with card data
2
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.9% for over 2.5 to 16.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.9%. On the card count, Paderborn are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 21.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Paderborn over 1.5 cards sits at 55.3% and Hamburg at 54.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.0% (Paderborn 7.4%, Hamburg 6.1%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

49.9%Over 3.5 cards
13.0%Any red card
39.9%Most cards: Paderborn
55.3%Paderborn over 1.5 cards
54.1%Hamburg over 1.5 cards
48.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.0%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianPaderborn are the pick to collect more cards at 39.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 49.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
PaderbornPaderborn

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

HamburgHamburg
Statistic
Paderborn
Hamburg
fouls per game
9.8
14.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Paderborn vs Hamburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.9% for Paderborn vs Hamburg.
Will there be a red card in Paderborn vs Hamburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Paderborn vs Hamburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Paderborn to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Cards predictions today

Related

BundesligaPaderborn fixtures and statsHamburg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.