Bundesliga
LeverkusenLeverkusenDWWWL
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1014:30UK13°C · Clear
StuttgartStuttgartLLWLL

Leverkusen vs Stuttgart xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Leverkusen2.06

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Stuttgart2.34

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Leverkusen have created 2.06 xG and scored 2.33 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Stuttgart have created 2.34 xG and scored 1.50 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

LeverkusenLeverkusen

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

StuttgartStuttgart
Statistic
Leverkusen
Stuttgart
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
2.06
2.34

xG conceded per game
1.43
2.39

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

LeverkusenLeverkusenLast 5
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 2-0
W
Win · 4-3
W
Win · 2-1
L
Loss · 0-3

3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss

StuttgartStuttgartLast 5
L
Loss · 1-2
L
Loss · 0-1
W
Win · 2-0
L
Loss · 0-1
L
Loss · 2-3

1 win · 0 draws · 4 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1LeverkusenLeverkusen wins
2Draws
2StuttgartStuttgart wins
4.0Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
StuttgartStuttgart
3 – 1
LeverkusenLeverkusen
LeverkusenLeverkusen
1 – 4
StuttgartStuttgart
StuttgartStuttgart
3 – 4
LeverkusenLeverkusen
LeverkusenLeverkusen
0 – 0
StuttgartStuttgart
LeverkusenLeverkusen
2 – 2
StuttgartStuttgart

Match outlook

PickLeverkusen56.6%
Draw19.3%
Stuttgart24.2%

The model leans Leverkusen to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

56.6%Favoured: Leverkusen
68.8%Both Teams to Score
70.8%Over 2.5 goals

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

LeverkusenLeverkusen (1)
Patrik Schick
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
51.3%
1.95
1+ shot on target
70.5%
1.42
2+ shots
74.8%
1.34
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.54
On target1.61
Goals0.95
StuttgartStuttgart (1)
Deniz Undav
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
34.4%
2.91
1+ shot on target
69.2%
1.45
2+ shots
84.0%
1.19
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots4.21
On target1.51
Goals0.54

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)

Related

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.