Paderborn 1-0 Hamburg shots: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Paderborn1-0Hamburg
| This match | Paderborn | Hamburg | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 16 | 8 | 24 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 1st-half shots | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2nd-half shots | 13 | 7 | 20 |
| 1st-half on target | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2nd-half on target | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Model expected shots | 15.0 | 12.5 | 27.5 |
| Model expected on target | 5.7 | 4.4 | 10.1 |
We called Over 24.5 at 66.7% and it missed (24 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 75.6% and it missed (7 in the match).
Model read
A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Moderate
Over 24.5 shots66.7%
Shots prediction
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Paderborn.
What the model expects
The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.
Treat as a range
| Model expects | Shots | On target |
|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 15.0 | 5.7 |
| Hamburg | 12.5 | 4.4 |
| Both teams | 27.5 | 10.1 |
Total shots
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 43.2% | 56.8% |
Who takes more shots
PaderbornHamburgTeam shots lines
Paderborn
Hamburg
Shots on target
Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.
Treat as a range
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 84.5% | 15.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 53.6% | 46.4% |
Who has more on target
PaderbornHamburgTeam shots on target lines
Paderborn
Hamburg
Shot handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Paderborn's; Hamburg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Paderborn line | Paderborn | Hamburg |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 38.9% | 61.1% |
| -2.5 | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| -0.5 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| +0.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% |
Player shots
Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.
| Paderborn | 2+ shots | 1+ on target | Shots /90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Philippe | 38.1% | 41.1% | 2.92 |
| Santiago Castañeda | 32.7% | 39.3% | 1.17 |
| Marvin Pieringer | 40.9% | 29.5% | 1.89 |
| Raphael Obermair | 32.6% | 15.7% | 1.23 |
| Laurin Curda | 38.3% | 15.1% | 1.38 |
| Hamburg | 2+ shots | 1+ on target | Shots /90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terem Igobor Moffi | 36.8% | 51.1% | 3.36 |
| Yussuf Poulsen | 20.2% | 29.0% | 3.54 |
| Rayan Philippe | 38.1% | 41.1% | 2.92 |
| Fábio Vieira | 62.4% | 52.1% | 2.53 |
| Albert Grønbæk | 23.8% | 27.5% | 1.62 |
Shots stats
Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.
This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.
At home and away: Paderborn in their home matches and Hamburg in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.
By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.
By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only Paderborn's home matches and Hamburg's away matches.
Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.
Last six at home and away: Paderborn's last six home league matches and Hamburg's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.
Recorded 2026/27
This season
Paderborn at home, Hamburg away
By half, this season
By half, at home and away
Last six league matches
Last six at home and away
League average per match: 31.5 shots, 11.1 on target, 13.1 in the 1st half, 18.5 in the 2nd half.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 2,814 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 66.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 66.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 77.2% for over 22.5 to 43.2% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.1%. On the shot count, Paderborn are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.7%, with a level count at 5.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Paderborn over 12.5 shots sits at 68.7% and Hamburg at 46.9%. This season Paderborn have averaged 14.2 shots a game and Hamburg 10.6. Paderborn take 6.6 shots before half-time and 7.4 after.
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Paderborn vs Hamburg?
How many shots on target in Paderborn vs Hamburg?
Which team will have more shots in Paderborn vs Hamburg?
How many shots do Hamburg take away from home?
Do Paderborn shoot more in the first or second half?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Bundesliga, Shots
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
