AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
MarseilleMarseilleLLWWW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1119:45UK
ToulouseToulouseDWDWD

Marseille vs Toulouse cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.5%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Marseille vs Toulouse. The model leans toward Toulouse for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.8% 26.2%
3.5 cards 53.5% 46.5%
4.5 cards 34.0% 66.0%
5.5 cards 19.1% 81.0%

Who picks up more cards

Marseille
32.8%
Level
20.9%
Toulouse
46.3%

Team cards lines

Marseille

Over 1.5
52.2%
Over 2.5
25.6%

Toulouse

Over 1.5
61.8%
Over 2.5
34.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Marseille's; Toulouse gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Marseille line Marseille Toulouse
-1.5 16.5% 83.5%
-0.5 32.8% 67.2%
+0.5 53.7% 46.3%
+1.5 73.3% 26.7%

Red card

Any red card14.4%
Marseille red card6.0%
Toulouse red card9.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 76.2% 23.8%
22.5 fouls 63.1% 36.9%
24.5 fouls 48.9% 51.1%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Marseille C. Turpin 2 3.0 0.5
Toulouse A. Petit 2 2.0 0.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

MarseilleMarseille

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Marseille at home and Toulouse away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ToulouseToulouse
Statistic
Marseille
Toulouse
Cards per game at this venue
1.8
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.3
·

Yellow cards per game
1.5
2.1

First-half yellow cards per game
0.5
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
1.0

Matches with card data
4
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.8% for over 2.5 to 19.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.5%. Head to head on cards, Toulouse are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.3%, with a level count at 20.9%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Marseille over 1.5 cards sits at 52.2% and Toulouse at 61.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.4% (Marseille 6.0%, Toulouse 9.0%). Marseille’s most frequent referee this season, C. Turpin, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

53.5%Over 3.5 cards
14.4%Any red card
46.3%Most cards: Toulouse
52.2%Marseille over 1.5 cards
61.8%Toulouse over 1.5 cards
63.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherC. Turpin, Marseille’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.4%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianToulouse are the pick to collect more cards at 46.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
MarseilleMarseille

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ToulouseToulouse
Statistic
Marseille
Toulouse
fouls per game
11.3
16.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Marseille vs Toulouse?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.5% for Marseille vs Toulouse.
Will there be a red card in Marseille vs Toulouse?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Marseille vs Toulouse?
The model rates Toulouse to pick up more cards at 46.3%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 1, Cards

Le Havre vs PSG cards predictionLille vs Lens cards predictionNice vs Rennes cards predictionLorient vs Brest cards predictionLyon vs Angers cards predictionTroyes vs Le Mans cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 1Marseille fixtures and statsToulouse fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.