AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
MarseilleMarseilleLLWWW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1119:45UK
ToulouseToulouseDWDWD

Marseille vs Toulouse xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Marseille1.85

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Toulouse1.85

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Marseille have created 1.85 xG and scored 2.33 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Toulouse have created 1.85 xG and scored 1.67 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

MarseilleMarseille

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

ToulouseToulouse
Statistic
Marseille
Toulouse
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.85
1.85

xG conceded per game
2.69
1.01

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

MarseilleMarseilleLast 5
L
Loss · 0-1
L
Loss · 1-2
W
Win · 2-0
W
Win · 5-2
W
Win · 4-3

3 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses

ToulouseToulouseLast 5
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 3-2
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 3-0
D
Draw · 0-0

2 wins · 3 draws · 0 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3MarseilleMarseille wins
2Draws
0ToulouseToulouse wins
3.6Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
ToulouseToulouse
0 – 1
MarseilleMarseille
MarseilleMarseille
2 – 2
ToulouseToulouse
MarseilleMarseille
3 – 2
ToulouseToulouse
ToulouseToulouse
1 – 3
MarseilleMarseille
ToulouseToulouse
2 – 2
MarseilleMarseille

Match outlook

PickMarseille48.5%
Draw23.9%
Toulouse27.6%

The model leans Marseille to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

48.5%Favoured: Marseille
61.9%Both Teams to Score
60.6%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

MarseilleMarseille (1)
Amine Gouiri
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
37.3%
2.68
1+ shot on target
65.8%
1.52
2+ shots
64.1%
1.56
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.95
On target1.45
Goals0.63
ToulouseToulouse (1)
Santiago Hidalgo
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
10.9%
9.17
1+ shot on target
38.4%
2.60
2+ shots
33.8%
2.96
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.50
On target1.01
Goals0.24

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 1Marseille fixtures and statsToulouse fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.