AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
MarseilleMarseilleLLWWW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1119:45UK
ToulouseToulouseDWDWD

Marseille vs Toulouse corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined56.7%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined43.3%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners43.3%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Marseille.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 67.8% 32.2%
8.5 corners 55.6% 44.5%
9.5 corners 43.3% 56.7%
10.5 corners 32.0% 68.0%
11.5 corners 22.6% 77.5%
12.5 corners 15.1% 84.9%

Who wins the corner count

Marseille
55.1%
Level
10.9%
Toulouse
34.0%

Team corners lines

Marseille

Over 3.5
70.6%
Over 4.5
54.9%
Over 5.5
39.6%

Toulouse

Over 3.5
55.9%
Over 4.5
38.6%
Over 5.5
24.5%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Marseille's; Toulouse gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Marseille line Marseille Toulouse
-1.5 43.9% 56.1%
-0.5 55.1% 44.9%
+0.5 66.0% 34.0%
+1.5 75.7% 24.3%
MarseilleMarseille

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Marseille at home and Toulouse away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ToulouseToulouse
Statistic
Marseille
Toulouse
Corners won per game at this venue
3.8
2.8

Corners conceded per game at this venue
4.5
4.3

First-half corners won per game
2.3
2.0

Second-half corners won per game
2.1
2.1

Matches with more corners than the opponent
62.5%
37.5%

Matches with corner data
8
8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 43.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.8% for over 7.5 to 15.1% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.6%. On the corner count, Marseille are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.1%, with a level count at 10.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Marseille over 4.5 corners sits at 54.9% and Toulouse at 38.6%. This season Marseille have averaged 4.4 corners won a game and Toulouse 4.1.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

43.3%Over 9.5 corners
55.1%Most corners: Marseille
54.9%Marseille over 4.5 corners
38.6%Toulouse over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 43.3% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderMarseille are the pick to win the corner count at 55.1%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 8.5 corners: over sits at 55.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
MarseilleMarseille

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ToulouseToulouse
Statistic
Marseille
Toulouse
corners won per game
4.4
4.1

corners conceded per game
4.3
4.1

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Marseille vs Toulouse?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 43.3% for Marseille vs Toulouse.
Which team will win the corner count in Marseille vs Toulouse?
The model rates Marseille to win the corner count at 55.1%, with a level count at 10.9%.
How many corners do Marseille and Toulouse average this season?
Marseille have won 4.4 corners a game this season and Toulouse 4.1.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Ligue 1Marseille fixtures and statsToulouse fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.