AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
MainzMainzWLWLW
Full time2-3Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1014:30UK12°C · Clearing
Werder BremenWerder BremenWDWDD

Mainz 2-3 Werder Bremen expected goals (xg): our prediction vs the result

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Mainz2.37

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Werder Bremen1.47

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Result

Mainz2-3Werder Bremen
1.86 – 2.95 xGUnderstat

The match produced 1.86 xG for Mainz and 2.95 xG for Werder Bremen, against a final score of 2-3. The chances and the scoreline broadly agreed.

Expected Goals (xG)

Mainz have created 2.37 xG and scored 2.33 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Werder Bremen have created 1.47 xG and scored 2.00 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

MainzMainz

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Statistic
Mainz
Werder Bremen
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
2.37
1.47

xG conceded per game
1.48
1.72

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

MainzMainzLast 5
W
Win · 5-0
L
Loss · 1-3
W
Win · 4-3
L
Loss · 3-4
W
Win · 1-0

3 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses

Werder BremenWerder BremenLast 5
W
Win · 3-1
D
Draw · 1-1
W
Win · 3-2
D
Draw · 2-2
D
Draw · 2-2

2 wins · 3 draws · 0 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1MainzMainz wins
1Draws
3Werder BremenWerder Bremen wins
1.8Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
0 – 2
MainzMainz
MainzMainz
1 – 1
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
1 – 0
MainzMainz
MainzMainz
1 – 2
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
MainzMainz
0 – 1
Werder BremenWerder Bremen

Match outlook

PickMainz56.7%
Draw21.7%
Werder Bremen21.7%

The model leans Mainz to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

56.7%Favoured: Mainz
60.6%Both Teams to Score
61.6%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

MainzMainz (1)
Sheraldo Becker
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
15.4%
6.49
1+ shot on target
52.2%
1.92
2+ shots
41.0%
2.44
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.61
On target1.37
Goals0.31
Werder BremenWerder Bremen (1)
Niclas Füllkrug
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
18.5%
5.41
1+ shot on target
43.5%
2.30
2+ shots
33.2%
3.01
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.32
On target1.12
Goals0.40

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)

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Related

BundesligaMainz fixtures and statsWerder Bremen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.