AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
MainzMainzWLWLW
Full time2-3Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1014:30UK12°C · Clearing
Werder BremenWerder BremenWDWDD

Mainz 2-3 Werder Bremen corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined55.1%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined44.9%

Result

Mainz2-3Werder Bremen
13 cornersMainz 6, Werder Bremen 7
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 55.1% and it landed (13 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners55.1%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Mainz.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 77.6% 22.5%
8.5 corners 66.9% 33.2%
9.5 corners 55.1% 44.9%
10.5 corners 43.3% 56.7%
11.5 corners 32.5% 67.5%
12.5 corners 23.3% 76.8%

Who wins the corner count

Mainz
61.8%
Level
9.8%
Werder Bremen
28.4%

Team corners lines

Mainz

Over 3.5
80.1%
Over 4.5
66.7%
Over 5.5
52.0%

Werder Bremen

Over 3.5
58.8%
Over 4.5
41.3%
Over 5.5
26.7%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Mainz's; Werder Bremen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Mainz line Mainz Werder Bremen
-3.5 30.7% 69.3%
-1.5 51.2% 48.8%
-0.5 61.8% 38.2%
+0.5 71.6% 28.4%
MainzMainz

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Mainz at home and Werder Bremen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Statistic
Mainz
Werder Bremen
Corners won per game at this venue
6.3
4.3

Corners conceded per game at this venue
3.3
7.7

Matches with more corners than the opponent
60.0%
0.0%

Matches with corner data
5
5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 55.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 77.6% for over 7.5 to 23.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.1%. Between the two sides, Mainz are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 61.8%, with a level count at 9.8%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Mainz over 4.5 corners sits at 66.7% and Werder Bremen at 41.3%. This season Mainz have averaged 5.6 corners won a game and Werder Bremen 3.4.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

55.1%Over 9.5 corners
61.8%Most corners: Mainz
66.7%Mainz over 4.5 corners
41.3%Werder Bremen over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.1% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderMainz are the pick to win the corner count at 61.8%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 55.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
MainzMainz

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Statistic
Mainz
Werder Bremen
corners won per game
5.6
3.4

corners conceded per game
4.0
6.4

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 55.1% for Mainz vs Werder Bremen.
Which team will win the corner count in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
Before kickoff, the model rated Mainz to win the corner count at 61.8%, with a level count at 9.8%.
How many corners do Mainz and Werder Bremen average this season?
Mainz have won 5.6 corners a game this season and Werder Bremen 3.4.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Corners

Elversberg vs Mainz corners predictionAugsburg vs Freiburg corners predictionLeverkusen vs Stuttgart corners predictionBorussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn corners predictionSchalke 04 vs RB Leipzig corners predictionWerder Bremen vs Hoffenheim corners prediction

Corner predictions today

Related

BundesligaMainz fixtures and statsWerder Bremen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.