MainzMainzWLWLW
Werder BremenWerder BremenWDWDDMainz 2-3 Werder Bremen correct score: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Mainz2-3Werder Bremen
Final score 2-3. The model gave that exact scoreline 2.3%.
Model read
No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.
Conviction: Open
Most likely · 10.4%1-1
Correct score
Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.
Rows = Mainz goals, columns = Werder Bremen goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.4%.
Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Most likely scorelines
- 1-110.4%
- 2-19.8%
- 2-08.2%
- 1-07.8%
- 3-16.5%
- 1-25.9%
- 2-25.8%
- 3-05.4%
Score probability grid
| H / A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Werder Bremen
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
W
L
W
L
W
3 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses
W
D
W
D
D
2 wins · 3 draws · 0 losses
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 10.4% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Mainz have averaged 2.8 scored and 2.0 conceded, Werder Bremen 2.2 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 61.6% for over 2.5 and 83.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
Looking at totals, the model sees 61.6% for three or more goals and 83.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Mainz favoured at 56.7%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Players to watch
Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.
MainzMainz (1)
Sheraldo Becker
Werder BremenWerder Bremen (1)
Niclas Füllkrug
FAQ
What was the score in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Bundesliga, Correct Score
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
