AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
MainzMainzWLWLW
Full time2-3Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1014:30UK12°C · Clearing
Werder BremenWerder BremenWDWDD

Mainz 2-3 Werder Bremen cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.2%

Result

Mainz2-3Werder Bremen
3 yellow cardsMainz 2, Werder Bremen 1
0 red cardsMainz 0, Werder Bremen 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.8% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 83.1% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Florian Badstubner

Recorded match referee.

Florian Badstubner in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 22 5
Goals 3.41 4.20
Yellow cards 2.55 2.60
Red cards 0.05 0.00
Corners 8.6 11.6
Fouls 22.0 20.6
Both teams scored 55% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 64% 100%
Home wins 46% 80%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Mainz vs Werder Bremen 2-3 5 Yes 3 0 12 12
18 Oct 2026 Leverkusen vs Freiburg 2-1 3 Yes 1 0 7 17
11 Oct 2026 FC Koln vs M'gladbach 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 12 25
13 Sep 2026 RB Leipzig vs Hamburg 5-0 5 No 3 0 14 24
29 Aug 2026 FC Koln vs Hoffenheim 3-2 5 Yes 2 0 13 25
17 May 2026 Darmstadt vs Paderborn2. Bundesliga 0-2 2 No 4 0 7 23
3 May 2026 M'gladbach vs Dortmund 1-0 1 No 4 0 2 31
18 Apr 2026 Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 15 28
11 Apr 2026 Darmstadt vs Hannover2. Bundesliga 0-2 2 No 2 0 8 20
22 Mar 2026 St Pauli vs Freiburg 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 5 15

Florian Badstubner referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Mainz vs Werder Bremen. Slightly more cards are projected for Werder Bremen for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.3% 26.7%
3.5 cards 52.8% 47.2%
4.5 cards 33.4% 66.6%
5.5 cards 18.6% 81.4%

Who picks up more cards

Mainz
34.7%
Level
21.1%
Werder Bremen
44.2%

Team cards lines

Mainz

Over 1.5
53.2%
Over 2.5
26.5%

Werder Bremen

Over 1.5
60.1%
Over 2.5
33.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Mainz's; Werder Bremen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Mainz line Mainz Werder Bremen
-1.5 17.7% 82.3%
-0.5 34.7% 65.3%
+0.5 55.8% 44.2%
+1.5 75.1% 25.0%

Red card

Any red card16.9%
Mainz red card12.1%
Werder Bremen red card5.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 52.8% 47.2%
22.5 fouls 40.3% 59.7%
24.5 fouls 29.2% 70.8%
MainzMainz

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Mainz at home and Werder Bremen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Statistic
Mainz
Werder Bremen
Yellow cards per game
2.4
1.2

First-half yellow cards per game
·
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
·
0.8

Matches with card data
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 52.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.3% for over 2.5 to 18.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.8%. Head to head on cards, Werder Bremen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 21.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Mainz over 1.5 cards sits at 53.2% and Werder Bremen at 60.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.9% (Mainz 12.1%, Werder Bremen 5.5%).

52.8%Over 3.5 cards
16.9%Any red card
44.2%Most cards: Werder Bremen
53.2%Mainz over 1.5 cards
60.1%Werder Bremen over 1.5 cards
40.3%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianWerder Bremen are the pick to collect more cards at 44.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 52.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
MainzMainz

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Statistic
Mainz
Werder Bremen
fouls per game
12.6
12.2

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.8% for Mainz vs Werder Bremen.
Will there be a red card in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
Before kickoff, the model rated Werder Bremen to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaMainz fixtures and statsWerder Bremen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.