AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
LiverpoolLiverpoolWDWLW
Full time2-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1014:00UK11°C · Cloudy
BrightonBrightonDWWWW

Liverpool 2-0 Brighton cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.8%

Result

Liverpool2-0Brighton
2 yellow cardsLiverpool 0, Brighton 2
0 red cardsLiverpool 0, Brighton 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 55.2% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 81.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.2%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Sam Barrott

Recorded match referee.

Sam Barrott in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 122 5
Goals 2.78 4.40
Yellow cards 3.48 3.00
Red cards 0.07 0.00
Corners 10.1 8.4
Fouls 21.4 20.4
Both teams scored 53% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 55% 80%
Home wins 36% 40%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Liverpool vs Brighton 2-0 2 No 2 0 6 22
10 Oct 2026 Chelsea vs Bournemouth 5-1 6 Yes 4 0 8 22
19 Sep 2026 Tottenham vs Aston Villa 2-3 5 Yes 3 0 12 22
5 Sep 2026 Fulham vs Crystal Palace 2-3 5 Yes 0 0 8 13
29 Aug 2026 Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest 2-2 4 Yes 6 0 8 23
24 May 2026 Brighton vs Manchester United 0-3 3 No 1 0 3 19
17 May 2026 Brentford vs Crystal Palace 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 13 12
11 May 2026 Millwall vs HullChampionship 0-2 2 No 5 Not available 14 19
3 May 2026 Aston Villa vs Tottenham 1-2 3 Yes 7 0 10 24
25 Apr 2026 Arsenal vs Newcastle 1-0 1 No 4 0 9 23

Sam Barrott referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Liverpool vs Brighton. It tips Brighton for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.1% 24.9%
3.5 cards 55.2% 44.8%
4.5 cards 35.7% 64.3%
5.5 cards 20.3% 79.7%

Who picks up more cards

Liverpool
28.4%
Level
20.1%
Brighton
51.5%

Team cards lines

Liverpool

Over 1.5
49.5%
Over 2.5
23.3%

Brighton

Over 1.5
66.1%
Over 2.5
39.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Liverpool's; Brighton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Liverpool line Liverpool Brighton
-1.5 13.6% 86.4%
-0.5 28.4% 71.6%
+0.5 48.5% 51.5%
+1.5 68.6% 31.4%

Red card

Any red card18.5%
Liverpool red card9.2%
Brighton red card10.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 60.4% 39.6%
22.5 fouls 44.2% 55.8%
24.5 fouls 29.3% 70.7%
LiverpoolLiverpool

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Liverpool at home and Brighton away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BrightonBrighton
Statistic
Liverpool
Brighton
Yellow cards per game
2.4
·

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.8
·

Matches with card data
3
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 55.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.1% for over 2.5 to 20.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.2%. On the card count, Brighton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.5%, with a level count at 20.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Liverpool over 1.5 cards sits at 49.5% and Brighton at 66.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.5% (Liverpool 9.2%, Brighton 10.3%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

55.2%Over 3.5 cards
18.5%Any red card
51.5%Most cards: Brighton
49.5%Liverpool over 1.5 cards
66.1%Brighton over 1.5 cards
44.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.5%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianBrighton are the pick to collect more cards at 51.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 55.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
LiverpoolLiverpool

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BrightonBrighton
Statistic
Liverpool
Brighton
fouls per game
13.0
13.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Liverpool vs Brighton?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.2% for Liverpool vs Brighton.
Will there be a red card in Liverpool vs Brighton?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Liverpool vs Brighton?
Before kickoff, the model rated Brighton to pick up more cards at 51.5%, with a level count at 20.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Premier LeagueLiverpool fixtures and statsBrighton fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.