AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
LeedsLeedsDDWDL
Full time1-1Sun, 18 Oct 202618/1014:00UK12°C · Cloudy
Manchester UnitedMan UtdWDLDD

Leeds 1-1 Manchester United cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.5%

Result

Leeds1-1Manchester United
4 yellow cardsLeeds 2, Manchester United 2
0 red cardsLeeds 0, Manchester United 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.5% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 89.7% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Darren England

Recorded match referee.

Darren England in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 247 5
Goals 2.72 1.80
Yellow cards 3.81 3.60
Red cards 0.13 0.00
Corners 10.2 8.2
Fouls 23.3 21.0
Both teams scored 52% 20%
Over 2.5 goals 49% 20%
Home wins 44% 40%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
18 Oct 2026 Leeds vs Manchester United 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 5 21
19 Sep 2026 Brighton vs Arsenal 3-0 3 No 5 0 11 24
12 Sep 2026 Tottenham vs Everton 0-0 0 No 2 0 11 22
4 Sep 2026 Ipswich vs Liverpool 0-2 2 No 4 0 7 19
22 Aug 2026 Hull vs Manchester United 2-0 2 No 3 0 7 19
24 May 2026 Liverpool vs Brentford 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 16 18
3 May 2026 Manchester United vs Liverpool 3-2 5 Yes 4 0 5 23
24 Apr 2026 Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest 0-5 5 No 7 0 9 28
20 Apr 2026 Crystal Palace vs West Ham 0-0 0 No 3 0 10 25
21 Mar 2026 Brighton vs Liverpool 2-1 3 Yes 10 0 12 22

Darren England referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Leeds vs Manchester United. The model leans toward Manchester United for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.0% 27.0%
3.5 cards 52.5% 47.5%
4.5 cards 33.1% 67.0%
5.5 cards 18.3% 81.7%

Who picks up more cards

Leeds
32.4%
Level
21.0%
Manchester United
46.6%

Team cards lines

Leeds

Over 1.5
51.1%
Over 2.5
24.7%

Manchester United

Over 1.5
61.4%
Over 2.5
34.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Leeds's; Manchester United gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Leeds line Leeds Manchester United
-1.5 16.1% 83.9%
-0.5 32.4% 67.6%
+0.5 53.4% 46.6%
+1.5 73.1% 26.9%

Red card

Any red card10.3%
Leeds red card6.9%
Manchester United red card3.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 58.9% 41.1%
22.5 fouls 42.6% 57.4%
24.5 fouls 27.9% 72.1%
LeedsLeeds

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Leeds at home and Manchester United away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Manchester UnitedMan Utd
Statistic
Leeds
Manchester United
Cards per game at this venue
1.0
1.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
3.0
2.7

Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.7

Matches with card data
6
6
Red cards this season
0
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 52.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.0% for over 2.5 to 18.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.5%. Between the two sides, Manchester United are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.6%, with a level count at 21.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Leeds over 1.5 cards sits at 51.1% and Manchester United at 61.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.3% (Leeds 6.9%, Manchester United 3.7%). This season Leeds have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Manchester United 1.7.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

52.5%Over 3.5 cards
10.3%Any red card
46.6%Most cards: Manchester United
51.1%Leeds over 1.5 cards
61.4%Manchester United over 1.5 cards
42.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 10.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianManchester United are the pick to collect more cards at 46.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 52.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
LeedsLeeds

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Manchester UnitedMan Utd
Statistic
Leeds
Manchester United
cards per game
1.8
1.7

fouls per game
12.2
10.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Leeds vs Manchester United?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.5% for Leeds vs Manchester United.
Will there be a red card in Leeds vs Manchester United?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Leeds vs Manchester United?
Before kickoff, the model rated Manchester United to pick up more cards at 46.6%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Premier LeagueLeeds fixtures and statsManchester United fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.