AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
LeedsLeedsDDWDL
Full time1-1Sun, 18 Oct 202618/1014:00UK12°C · Cloudy
Manchester UnitedMan UtdWDLDD

Leeds 1-1 Manchester United expected goals (xg): our prediction vs the result

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Leeds1.40

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Manchester United1.91

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Result

Leeds1-1Manchester United
1.41 – 1.08 xGUnderstat

The match produced 1.41 xG for Leeds and 1.08 xG for Manchester United, against a final score of 1-1. The chances and the scoreline broadly agreed.

Expected Goals (xG)

Leeds have created 1.40 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Manchester United have created 1.91 xG and scored 1.50 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

LeedsLeeds

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

Manchester UnitedMan Utd
Statistic
Leeds
Manchester United
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.40
1.91

xG conceded per game
1.46
1.54

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

LeedsLeedsLast 5
D
Draw · 1-1
D
Draw · 1-1
W
Win · 4-1
D
Draw · 0-0
L
Loss · 1-2

1 win · 3 draws · 1 loss

Manchester UnitedMan UtdLast 5
W
Win · 5-2
D
Draw · 2-2
L
Loss · 0-1
D
Draw · 1-1
D
Draw · 1-1

1 win · 3 draws · 1 loss

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1LeedsLeeds wins
2Draws
2Manchester UnitedMan Utd wins
3.4Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
Manchester UnitedMan Utd
1 – 2
LeedsLeeds
LeedsLeeds
1 – 1
Manchester UnitedMan Utd
LeedsLeeds
0 – 2
Manchester UnitedMan Utd
Manchester UnitedMan Utd
2 – 2
LeedsLeeds
LeedsLeeds
2 – 4
Manchester UnitedMan Utd

Match outlook

PickLeeds37.3%
Draw25.4%
Manchester United37.3%

The model leans Leeds to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

37.3%Favoured: Leeds
56.9%Both Teams to Score
52.6%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

LeedsLeeds (1)
Lukas Nmecha
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
15.2%
6.58
1+ shot on target
36.4%
2.75
2+ shots
25.1%
3.98
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.04
On target1.43
Goals0.52
Manchester UnitedMan Utd (1)
Benjamin Sesko
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
31.3%
3.19
1+ shot on target
63.7%
1.57
2+ shots
59.8%
1.67
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.00
On target1.51
Goals0.56

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Premier League, Expected Goals (xG)

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Related

Premier LeagueLeeds fixtures and statsManchester United fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.