AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
LeedsLeedsDDWDL
Full time1-1Sun, 18 Oct 202618/1014:00UK12°C · Cloudy
Manchester UnitedMan UtdWDLDD

Leeds 1-1 Manchester United corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined52.2%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined47.9%

Result

Leeds1-1Manchester United
5 cornersLeeds 2, Manchester United 3
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 52.2% and it missed (5 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners52.2%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Leeds.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 74.7% 25.3%
8.5 corners 63.8% 36.2%
9.5 corners 52.2% 47.9%
10.5 corners 40.8% 59.2%
11.5 corners 30.5% 69.5%
12.5 corners 21.9% 78.1%

Who wins the corner count

Leeds
50.1%
Level
10.1%
Manchester United
39.8%

Team corners lines

Leeds

Over 3.5
71.2%
Over 4.5
56.3%
Over 5.5
41.7%

Manchester United

Over 3.5
64.5%
Over 4.5
48.5%
Over 5.5
34.0%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Leeds's; Manchester United gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Leeds line Leeds Manchester United
-1.5 40.0% 60.0%
-0.5 50.1% 49.9%
+0.5 60.2% 39.8%
+1.5 69.6% 30.4%
LeedsLeeds

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Leeds at home and Manchester United away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Manchester UnitedMan Utd
Statistic
Leeds
Manchester United
Corners won per game at this venue
4.7
7.3

Corners conceded per game at this venue
4.7
2.7

Matches with corner data
6
6

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 52.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.7% for over 7.5 to 21.9% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.2%. On the corner count, Leeds are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 50.1%, with a level count at 10.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Leeds over 4.5 corners sits at 56.3% and Manchester United at 48.5%. This season Leeds have averaged 4.3 corners won a game and Manchester United 6.7.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

52.2%Over 9.5 corners
50.1%Most corners: Leeds
56.3%Leeds over 4.5 corners
48.5%Manchester United over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.2% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderLeeds are the pick to win the corner count at 50.1%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 52.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
LeedsLeeds

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Manchester UnitedMan Utd
Statistic
Leeds
Manchester United
corners won per game
4.3
6.7

corners conceded per game
4.3
3.8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Leeds vs Manchester United?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 52.2% for Leeds vs Manchester United.
Which team will win the corner count in Leeds vs Manchester United?
Before kickoff, the model rated Leeds to win the corner count at 50.1%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Leeds and Manchester United average this season?
Leeds have won 4.3 corners a game this season and Manchester United 6.7.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Premier LeagueLeeds fixtures and statsManchester United fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.