Premier League
Hull vs 
Everton Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 50.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 71.4% for over 2.5 to 16.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.5%. Head to head on cards, Everton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 21.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.9% | 83.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
52.3%
25.7%
57.8%
30.7%
Card handicap
| Hull line | Hull | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.1% | 81.9% |
| -0.5 | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| +0.5 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| +1.5 | 76.3% | 23.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 21.9% | 78.1% |
This season (2026/27)
3.4Hull cards per game10.0Hull fouls per game1.8Everton cards per game8.0Everton fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hull vs Everton. The model leans toward Everton for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
50.5%Over 3.5 cards7.5%Any red card52.3%Hull over 1.5 cards57.8%Everton over 1.5 cards35.3%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Hull over 1.5 cards sits at 52.3% and Everton at 57.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.5% (Hull 2.7%, Everton 4.9%). This season Hull have averaged 3.4 cards a game and Everton 1.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Hull vs Everton?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.5% for Hull vs Everton.
Will there be a red card in Hull vs Everton?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Hull vs Everton?
The model rates Everton to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
