Hull vs Everton prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

Premier League

Hull vs Everton Both Teams to Score

2026-10-11 · 14:00
Both Teams to Score51.7%Both teams to score · Yes
Best predictionBoth teams to score · Yes · 51.7%Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean. Calibrated, not a tip.
52%

model probability

ConvictionLean

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Both teams to score · Yes at 51.7%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Hull have averaged 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, Everton 1.2 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 46.5% for over 2.5 and 72.6% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Hull have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Everton in 2 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.

Both Teams to Score

★ ModelYes51.7%

No48.3%

Over 2.5 · context46.5%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Hull scored

1.2

Hull conceded

0.8

Everton scored

1.2

Everton conceded

0.6

Each team to score

Hull to score67.8%

Hull 2+ goals31.4%

Everton to score75.4%

Everton 2+ goals40.9%

By half

Both score in 1st half17.0%

Both score in 2nd half17.3%

This season (2026/27)

40.0%Hull BTTS rate
60.0%Hull clean sheets
1.2Hull goals scored per game
40.0%Everton BTTS rate
60.0%Everton clean sheets
1.2Everton goals scored per game

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

8.6%

0

18.8%

1

26.1%

2

21.5%

3

13.7%

4

11.0%

5+

In-depth analysis

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

42.9%Favoured: Everton
51.7%Both Teams to Score
46.5%Over 2.5 goals

Looking at totals, the model sees 46.5% for three or more goals and 72.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Everton favoured at 42.9%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 51.7% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianSees a balanced game from the 46.5% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutEverton are the model’s pick on the result at 42.9%, context for how the goals may flow.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

Hull29.1%

Draw28.0%

Everton42.9%

The model leans Everton to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

R

Robinio VazHull · 2.21 shots/90
To score 15.4%

C

Carlos AlcarazEverton · 3.02 shots/90
To score 5.4%

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

HullWWDDL
EvertonWDDDW

Last 4 meetings: Hull 1 · 2 draws · Everton 1 · 3.0 goals/game.

Recent trends

HullBTTS 2/5Over 2.5 2/5
EvertonBTTS 2/5Over 2.5 1/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in Hull vs Everton?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 51.7% for Hull vs Everton.

Will Hull score against Everton?
The model rates Hull to score at 67.8% and Everton to score at 75.4%.

How often have Hull seen both teams score recently?
Hull have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Everton in 2 of 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0231Calibration error
55,617Matches graded

In 26,755 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 61.8%✗ 54.5%✗ 51.3%✓ 55.8%✗ 67.4%✗ 62.0%✓ 64.5%✓ 60.1%✓ 59.0%✓ 55.0%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool2026-09-20Yes 61.8%Miss
Leeds vs Crystal Palace2026-09-20Yes 54.5%Miss
Manchester City vs Sunderland2026-09-20No 51.3%Miss
Fulham vs Manchester United2026-09-20Yes 55.8%Hit
Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig2026-09-20Yes 67.4%Miss

More Premier League, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

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Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.