Premier League
Hull vs 
Everton Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 54.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 65.4% for over 22.5 to 32.0% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.0%. Head to head on shots, Hull are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.7%, with a level count at 5.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 32.0% | 68.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.4%
58.5%
43.4%
55.9%
39.1%
25.1%
Shot handicap
| Hull line | Hull | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.6% | 62.5% |
| -2.5 | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| -0.5 | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| +0.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 34.6% | 65.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
3.8 / 8.0
6.6 / 9.4
This season (2026/27)
12.2Hull shots per game13.8Hull shots faced per game3.8Hull first-half shots8.0Hull second-half shots16.0Everton shots per game13.8Everton shots faced per game6.6Everton first-half shots9.4Everton second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Hull.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
54.0%Over 24.5 shots58.5%Hull over 12.5 shots39.1%Everton over 12.5 shots57.9%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Hull over 12.5 shots sits at 58.5% and Everton at 39.1%. This season Hull have averaged 12.2 shots a game and Everton 16.0. Hull take 3.8 shots before half-time and 8.0 after, Everton 6.6 and 9.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Hull vs Everton?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 54.0% for Hull vs Everton.
Which team will have more shots in Hull vs Everton?
The model rates Hull to take more shots at 60.7%.
Do Hull shoot more in the first or second half?
Hull average 3.8 shots before half-time and 8.0 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
