AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
FC KolnFC KolnLWLDL
Full time2-1Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1014:30UK14°C · Clear
M'gladbachM'gladbachWLLLL

FC Koln 2-1 Borussia Monchengladbach cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.5%

Result

FC Koln2-1M'gladbach
4 yellow cardsFC Koln 1, M'gladbach 3
0 red cardsFC Koln 0, M'gladbach 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 57.5% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 82.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards57.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for FC Koln vs M'gladbach. It tips M'gladbach for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.9% 23.2%
3.5 cards 57.5% 42.5%
4.5 cards 38.0% 62.0%
5.5 cards 22.2% 77.8%

Who picks up more cards

FC Koln
36.4%
Level
20.5%
M'gladbach
43.1%

Team cards lines

FC Koln

Over 1.5
57.6%
Over 2.5
30.6%

M'gladbach

Over 1.5
62.3%
Over 2.5
35.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is FC Koln's; M'gladbach gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

FC Koln line FC Koln M'gladbach
-1.5 19.4% 80.6%
-0.5 36.4% 63.6%
+0.5 56.9% 43.1%
+1.5 75.4% 24.6%

Red card

Any red card17.5%
FC Koln red card5.8%
M'gladbach red card12.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 47.4% 52.6%
22.5 fouls 35.3% 64.7%
24.5 fouls 25.0% 75.1%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 57.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 76.9% for over 2.5 to 22.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.5%. Between the two sides, M'gladbach are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.1%, with a level count at 20.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, FC Koln over 1.5 cards sits at 57.6% and M'gladbach at 62.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.5% (FC Koln 5.8%, M'gladbach 12.5%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

57.5%Over 3.5 cards
17.5%Any red card
43.1%Most cards: M'gladbach
57.6%FC Koln over 1.5 cards
62.3%M'gladbach over 1.5 cards
35.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 57.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianM'gladbach are the pick to collect more cards at 43.1%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 57.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 57.5% for FC Koln vs M'gladbach.
Will there be a red card in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated M'gladbach to pick up more cards at 43.1%, with a level count at 20.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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BundesligaFC Koln fixtures and statsBorussia Monchengladbach fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.