AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
FC KolnFC KolnLWLDL
Full time2-1Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1014:30UK14°C · Clear
M'gladbachM'gladbachWLLLL

FC Koln 2-1 Borussia Monchengladbach corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined53.6%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined46.4%

Result

FC Koln2-1M'gladbach
12 cornersFC Koln 6, M'gladbach 6
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 53.6% and it landed (12 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners53.6%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for FC Koln.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 76.4% 23.6%
8.5 corners 65.5% 34.6%
9.5 corners 53.6% 46.4%
10.5 corners 41.8% 58.2%
11.5 corners 31.1% 68.9%
12.5 corners 22.1% 77.9%

Who wins the corner count

FC Koln
57.5%
Level
10.3%
M'gladbach
32.3%

Team corners lines

FC Koln

Over 3.5
77.3%
Over 4.5
62.9%
Over 5.5
47.9%

M'gladbach

Over 3.5
61.2%
Over 4.5
43.9%
Over 5.5
29.0%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is FC Koln's; M'gladbach gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

FC Koln line FC Koln M'gladbach
-3.5 26.8% 73.2%
-1.5 46.7% 53.3%
-0.5 57.5% 42.6%
+0.5 67.7% 32.3%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 53.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.4% for over 7.5 to 22.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.6%. On the corner count, FC Koln are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.5%, with a level count at 10.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

53.6%Over 9.5 corners
57.5%Most corners: FC Koln
62.9%FC Koln over 4.5 corners
43.9%M'gladbach over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

For the team lines, FC Koln over 4.5 corners sits at 62.9% and M'gladbach at 43.9%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.6% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderFC Koln are the pick to win the corner count at 57.5%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 53.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many corners in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 53.6% for FC Koln vs M'gladbach.
Which team will win the corner count in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated FC Koln to win the corner count at 57.5%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Corners

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Corner predictions today

Related

BundesligaFC Koln fixtures and statsBorussia Monchengladbach fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.