AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
Schalke 04Schalke 04WDLLD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1014:30UK10°C · Cloudy
RB LeipzigRB LeipzigWLWLW

Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.3%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.8%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards42.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig. It tips RB Leipzig for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 64.8% 35.2%
3.5 cards 42.8% 57.3%
4.5 cards 24.4% 75.6%
5.5 cards 12.1% 87.9%

Who picks up more cards

Schalke 04
35.5%
Level
22.8%
RB Leipzig
41.7%

Team cards lines

Schalke 04

Over 1.5
47.3%
Over 2.5
21.5%

RB Leipzig

Over 1.5
51.9%
Over 2.5
25.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Schalke 04's; RB Leipzig gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Schalke 04 line Schalke 04 RB Leipzig
-1.5 17.3% 82.7%
-0.5 35.5% 64.5%
+0.5 58.3% 41.7%
+1.5 78.2% 21.8%

Red card

Any red card7.6%
Schalke 04 red card3.3%
RB Leipzig red card4.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 50.6% 49.4%
22.5 fouls 38.2% 61.8%
24.5 fouls 27.3% 72.7%
Schalke 04Schalke 04

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Schalke 04 at home and RB Leipzig away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
Statistic
Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
Yellow cards per game
1.1
1.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.2
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
0.7

Matches with more cards than the opponent
20.0%
·

Matches with card data
5
3
Red cards this season
1
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 42.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 64.8% for over 2.5 to 12.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.8%. Between the two sides, RB Leipzig are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 22.8%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Schalke 04 over 1.5 cards sits at 47.3% and RB Leipzig at 51.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.6% (Schalke 04 3.3%, RB Leipzig 4.5%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

42.8%Over 3.5 cards
7.6%Any red card
41.7%Most cards: RB Leipzig
47.3%Schalke 04 over 1.5 cards
51.9%RB Leipzig over 1.5 cards
38.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 42.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianRB Leipzig are the pick to collect more cards at 41.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 42.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Schalke 04Schalke 04

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
Statistic
Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
cards per game
1.4
·

fouls per game
9.7
9.9

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 42.8% for Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig.
Will there be a red card in Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
The model rates RB Leipzig to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 22.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaSchalke 04 fixtures and statsRB Leipzig fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.