AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
M'gladbachM'gladbachLLLLW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1014:30UK11°C · Clearing
PaderbornPaderbornLWLDW

Borussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.6%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.4%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for M'gladbach vs Paderborn. Slightly more cards are projected for Paderborn for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.1% 27.9%
3.5 cards 51.4% 48.6%
4.5 cards 32.0% 68.0%
5.5 cards 17.5% 82.5%

Who picks up more cards

M'gladbach
38.6%
Level
21.5%
Paderborn
39.9%

Team cards lines

M'gladbach

Over 1.5
55.3%
Over 2.5
28.3%

Paderborn

Over 1.5
56.2%
Over 2.5
29.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is M'gladbach's; Paderborn gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

M'gladbach line M'gladbach Paderborn
-1.5 20.4% 79.6%
-0.5 38.6% 61.4%
+0.5 60.1% 39.9%
+1.5 78.5% 21.5%

Red card

Any red card7.4%
M'gladbach red card5.0%
Paderborn red card2.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 55.4% 44.6%
22.5 fouls 43.0% 57.0%
24.5 fouls 31.7% 68.4%
M'gladbachM'gladbach

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means M'gladbach at home and Paderborn away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

PaderbornPaderborn
Statistic
M'gladbach
Paderborn
Yellow cards per game
3.3
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
1.0
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
2.3
0.5

Matches with card data
2
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.1% for over 2.5 to 17.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.4%. Between the two sides, Paderborn are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 21.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, M'gladbach over 1.5 cards sits at 55.3% and Paderborn at 56.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.4% (M'gladbach 5.0%, Paderborn 2.6%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

51.4%Over 3.5 cards
7.4%Any red card
39.9%Most cards: Paderborn
55.3%M'gladbach over 1.5 cards
56.2%Paderborn over 1.5 cards
43.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.4%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianPaderborn are the pick to collect more cards at 39.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 51.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
M'gladbachM'gladbach

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

PaderbornPaderborn
Statistic
M'gladbach
Paderborn
fouls per game
14.7
10.7

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in M'gladbach vs Paderborn?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.4% for M'gladbach vs Paderborn.
Will there be a red card in M'gladbach vs Paderborn?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in M'gladbach vs Paderborn?
The model rates Paderborn to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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BundesligaBorussia Monchengladbach fixtures and statsPaderborn fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.