AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
ElversbergElversbergLDLWL
Fri, 30 Oct 202630/1019:30UK
MainzMainzLWLWL

Elversberg vs Mainz cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.7%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.3%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Elversberg vs Mainz. Slightly more cards are projected for Mainz for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.4% 25.6%
3.5 cards 54.3% 45.7%
4.5 cards 34.8% 65.2%
5.5 cards 19.7% 80.3%

Who picks up more cards

Elversberg
37.8%
Level
21.0%
Mainz
41.2%

Team cards lines

Elversberg

Over 1.5
56.6%
Over 2.5
29.6%

Mainz

Over 1.5
59.0%
Over 2.5
31.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Elversberg's; Mainz gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Elversberg line Elversberg Mainz
-1.5 20.1% 79.9%
-0.5 37.8% 62.2%
+0.5 58.8% 41.2%
+1.5 77.3% 22.7%

Red card

Any red card5.6%
Elversberg red card2.2%
Mainz red card3.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 57.7% 42.3%
22.5 fouls 45.3% 54.7%
24.5 fouls 33.8% 66.2%
ElversbergElversberg

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Elversberg at home and Mainz away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MainzMainz
Statistic
Elversberg
Mainz
Yellow cards per game
2.0
2.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
1.5

Matches with card data
3
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 54.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.4% for over 2.5 to 19.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.3%. Between the two sides, Mainz are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.2%, with a level count at 21.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Elversberg over 1.5 cards sits at 56.6% and Mainz at 59.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.6% (Elversberg 2.2%, Mainz 3.4%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

54.3%Over 3.5 cards
5.6%Any red card
41.2%Most cards: Mainz
56.6%Elversberg over 1.5 cards
59.0%Mainz over 1.5 cards
45.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 5.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianMainz are the pick to collect more cards at 41.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 54.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
ElversbergElversberg

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MainzMainz
Statistic
Elversberg
Mainz
fouls per game
12.7
12.9

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Elversberg vs Mainz?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 54.3% for Elversberg vs Mainz.
Will there be a red card in Elversberg vs Mainz?
The model rates a red card for either side at 5.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Elversberg vs Mainz?
The model rates Mainz to pick up more cards at 41.2%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaElversberg fixtures and statsMainz fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.