AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
FC KolnFC KolnLWLDL
Full time2-1Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1014:30UK14°C · Clear
M'gladbachM'gladbachWLLLL

FC Koln 2-1 Borussia Monchengladbach shots: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined63%
Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined37%

Result

FC Koln2-1M'gladbach
Shots in this match: FC Koln vs M'gladbach
This match FC Koln M'gladbach Total
Shots 19 16 35
Shots on target 7 7 14
1st-half shots 9 9 18
2nd-half shots 11 7 18
Over 24.5Over 7.5

We called Over 24.5 at 63.0% and it landed (35 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 76.1% and it landed (14 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 24.5 shots63.0%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges FC Koln.

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 74.1% 25.9%
24.5 shots 63.0% 37.0%
26.5 shots 51.0% 49.0%
28.5 shots 39.2% 60.9%

Who takes more shots

FC Koln
64.6%
Level
5.5%
M'gladbach
29.9%

Team shots lines

FC Koln

Over 10.5
81.1%
Over 12.5
67.3%
Over 14.5
51.6%

M'gladbach

Over 10.5
60.4%
Over 12.5
42.4%
Over 14.5
27.0%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 84.8% 15.2%
7.5 shots on target 76.1% 24.0%
8.5 shots on target 65.7% 34.3%
9.5 shots on target 54.5% 45.5%

Who has more on target

FC Koln
66.7%
Level
9.9%
M'gladbach
23.5%

Team shots on target lines

FC Koln

Over 3.5
82.1%
Over 4.5
69.3%
Over 5.5
54.9%

M'gladbach

Over 3.5
55.6%
Over 4.5
37.8%
Over 5.5
23.5%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is FC Koln's; M'gladbach gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

FC Koln line FC Koln M'gladbach
-4.5 40.7% 59.3%
-2.5 52.8% 47.2%
-0.5 64.6% 35.4%
+0.5 70.1% 29.9%

Player shots

Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.

FC Koln player shots
FC Koln 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt 27.9% 38.2% 3.66
Said El Mala 66.2% 60.0% 3.54
Mikey Moore 32.4% 44.3% 1.97
Ragnar Ache 54.2% 47.1% 2.80
Marius Bülter 40.2% 43.2% 2.27
M'gladbach player shots
M'gladbach 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Tim Kleindienst 58.5% 63.3% 2.24
Hugo Bolin 47.2% 41.0% 2.86
Shuto Machino 32.0% 36.6% 2.35
Robin Hack 46.7% 47.6% 2.24
Wael Mohya 18.8% 27.1% 1.90

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

FC KolnFC Koln

Recorded 2026/27

M'gladbachM'gladbach
This season

Season statistics are not available for both teams in this league yet.

Last six league matches
Statistic
FC Koln
M'gladbach
Shots per game
16.0
15.2

Shots faced per game
15.5
16.8

Matches
6
6

League average per match: 13.0 in the 1st half, 18.2 in the 2nd half.

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 2,814 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 66.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 63.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.1% for over 22.5 to 39.2% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.0%. Between the two sides, FC Koln are the model’s pick to have more shots at 64.6%, with a level count at 5.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

63.0%Over 24.5 shots
64.6%Most shots: FC Koln
67.3%FC Koln over 12.5 shots
42.4%M'gladbach over 12.5 shots
76.1%Over 7.5 on target

Split by side, FC Koln over 12.5 shots sits at 67.3% and M'gladbach at 42.4%.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 63.0% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderFC Koln are the pick to have more shots at 64.6%, volume and pressure move together.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 26.5 shots: over sits at 51.0%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 26.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many shots in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 63.0% for FC Koln vs M'gladbach.
Which team will have more shots in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated FC Koln to take more shots at 64.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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BundesligaFC Koln fixtures and statsBorussia Monchengladbach fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.