Premier League
Coventry vs 
Newcastle Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 52.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.0% for over 2.5 to 18.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.5%. Between the two sides, Newcastle are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 21.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.1% | 66.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.3% | 81.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
53.1%
26.4%
59.7%
32.7%
Card handicap
| Coventry line | Coventry | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| -0.5 | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| +0.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| +1.5 | 75.3% | 24.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 32.3% | 67.7% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Coventry cards per game12.0Coventry fouls per game2.4Newcastle cards per game12.2Newcastle fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Coventry vs Newcastle. The model leans toward Newcastle for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
52.5%Over 3.5 cards10.2%Any red card53.1%Coventry over 1.5 cards59.7%Newcastle over 1.5 cards47.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Coventry over 1.5 cards sits at 53.1% and Newcastle at 59.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.2% (Coventry 8.3%, Newcastle 2.1%). This season Coventry have averaged 1.0 cards a game and Newcastle 2.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Coventry vs Newcastle?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.5% for Coventry vs Newcastle.
Will there be a red card in Coventry vs Newcastle?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Coventry vs Newcastle?
The model rates Newcastle to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
