Premier League
Coventry vs 
Newcastle Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 55.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Coventry have averaged 0.2 scored and 2.0 conceded, Newcastle 1.8 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 55.7% for over 2.5 and 79.3% for at least two goals. Coventry have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Newcastle in 4 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.0% | 6.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 17.1% | 82.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 7.6% | 92.4% |
Team goal lines
72.3%
36.8%
14.0%
80.4%
48.5%
22.5%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 11.3% | 88.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 77.6% | 22.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 19.0% | 81.0% |
This season (2026/27)
0.2Coventry goals scored per game2.0Coventry goals conceded per game40.0%Coventry Over 2.5 rate0.0Coventry 1st-half goals per game1.8Newcastle goals scored per game1.8Newcastle goals conceded per game80.0%Newcastle Over 2.5 rate0.8Newcastle 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
58.7%Both Teams to Score55.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 55.7% for three or more goals and 79.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Newcastle favoured at 46.5%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Newcastle to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Coventry vs Newcastle?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 55.7% for Coventry vs Newcastle.
Will there be a first-half goal in Coventry vs Newcastle?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 68.8%.
How often have Coventry gone over 2.5 recently?
Coventry have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Newcastle in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,322 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
