Premier League
Coventry vs 
Newcastle Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 52.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 64.0% for over 22.5 to 30.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.5%. Between the two sides, Coventry are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.9%, with a level count at 5.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 30.6% | 69.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
71.5%
56.3%
41.1%
56.1%
39.3%
25.3%
Shot handicap
| Coventry line | Coventry | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| -2.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| -0.5 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| +0.5 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 37.4% | 62.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
6.2 / 4.0
4.6 / 6.0
This season (2026/27)
10.2Coventry shots per game17.4Coventry shots faced per game6.2Coventry first-half shots4.0Coventry second-half shots10.2Newcastle shots per game19.6Newcastle shots faced per game4.6Newcastle first-half shots6.0Newcastle second-half shotsShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Coventry.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
52.5%Over 24.5 shots56.3%Coventry over 12.5 shots39.3%Newcastle over 12.5 shots60.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Coventry over 12.5 shots sits at 56.3% and Newcastle at 39.3%. This season Coventry have averaged 10.2 shots a game and Newcastle 10.2. Coventry take 6.2 shots before half-time and 4.0 after, Newcastle 4.6 and 6.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Coventry vs Newcastle?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 52.5% for Coventry vs Newcastle.
Which team will have more shots in Coventry vs Newcastle?
The model rates Coventry to take more shots at 58.9%.
Do Coventry shoot more in the first or second half?
Coventry average 6.2 shots before half-time and 4.0 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
