Premier League
Coventry vs 
Newcastle Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 51.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 75.7% for over 7.5 to 22.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.3%. On the corner count, Coventry are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 51.6%, with a level count at 10.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 10.5 corners | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.7% | 77.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
72.9%
58.2%
43.6%
64.2%
48.1%
33.5%
Corner handicap
| Coventry line | Coventry | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41.6% | 58.5% |
| -0.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| +0.5 | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| +1.5 | 70.9% | 29.1% |
This season (2026/27)
4.0Coventry corners won per game4.6Coventry corners conceded per game4.4Newcastle corners won per game6.0Newcastle corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Coventry.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
53.3%Over 9.5 corners58.2%Coventry over 4.5 corners48.1%Newcastle over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Coventry over 4.5 corners sits at 58.2% and Newcastle at 48.1%. This season Coventry have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Newcastle 4.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Coventry vs Newcastle?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 53.3% for Coventry vs Newcastle.
Which team will win the corner count in Coventry vs Newcastle?
The model rates Coventry to win the corner count at 51.6%, with a level count at 10.0%.
How many corners do Coventry and Newcastle average this season?
Coventry have won 4.0 corners a game this season and Newcastle 4.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,827 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
