Bristol City vs Watford: model prediction
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
ChampionshipBristol City or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 4 calls right
Our most likely call was Bristol City at 47.1%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 52.0% and it landed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 73.7% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 73.8% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 52.0% and it missed.
Win probability · fair 2.12
Top signals
Model read
Bristol City versus Watford on 18 September 2026 tilts towards Bristol City in our numbers (47%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The recent series reads 1 wins for Bristol City, 2 draws and 2 for Watford over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. Fatigue may matter, with Bristol City 3 days shorter on recovery than Watford. The run in: Bristol City arrive W3 D1 L2, Watford W1 D2 L3. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
47.1%
26.8%
26.0%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Bristol City 1 · 2 draws · Watford 2 · 2.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Watford71.4%42.9%
71.4%71.4%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 2.76 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 60% · BTTS in 64%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 64.0% | Over 24.5 | 51.6% | Over 26.5 | 39.3% | Over 28.5 | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Bristol City | 55.6% | Most: Watford | 38.2% | ||||
| Bristol City Over 13.2 | 45.0% | Watford Over 13.2 | 32.8% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 67.3% | Over 7.5 | 54.3% | Over 8.5 | 41.6% | Over 9.5 | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Bristol City | 52.3% | Most: Watford | 34.8% | ||||
| Bristol City Over 4.2 | 43.9% | Watford Over 4.2 | 31.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 77.8% | Over 3.5 | 58.8% | Over 4.5 | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Bristol City | 29.2% | Most: Watford | 51.2% | ||
| Bristol City Over 1.8 | 52.6% | Watford Over 1.8 | 68.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Bristol City clean sheet | 34.2% |
|---|---|
| Watford clean sheet | 21.8% |
| Bristol City win to nil | 26.1% |
| Watford win to nil | 13.7% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 47.1% | draw | 26.8% | away | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 74.0% | 12 | 73.2% | X2 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 64.4% | away | 35.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.9% | no | 48.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 34.4% | away | 21.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.3% | away | 13.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.0% | home_by_2 | 14.5% | home_by_3plus | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.9% | away_by_2 | 7.1% | away_by_3plus | 3.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 0-1 | 7.4% | 0-2 | 4.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.5% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | 1-1 | 12.8% | 1-2 | 6.5% |
| 1-3 | 2.3% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 2-1 | 9.3% | 2-2 | 5.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.8% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.4% | 3-1 | 4.7% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.7% | 4-1 | 1.8% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.9% | under_0.5 | 8.1% | over_1.5 | 73.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.3% | over_2.5 | 48.0% | under_2.5 | 52.0% |
| over_3.5 | 26.3% | under_3.5 | 73.8% | over_4.5 | 12.2% |
| under_4.5 | 87.8% | over_5.5 | 4.9% | under_5.5 | 95.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 78.2% | under_0.5 | 21.8% | over_1.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.0% | over_2.5 | 19.7% | under_2.5 | 80.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 65.6% | under_0.5 | 34.4% | over_1.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.0% | over_2.5 | 9.4% | under_2.5 | 90.6% |
most
| home | 47.1% | draw | 26.8% | away | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 9.7% | away_+2.5 | 90.3% | home_-1.5 | 24.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 75.8% | home_-0.5 | 47.1% | away_+0.5 | 52.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.0% | away_-0.5 | 26.0% | home_+1.5 | 89.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 10.1% | home_+2.5 | 97.0% | away_-2.5 | 3.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.1% | exact_1 | 18.2% | exact_2 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 14.1% | exact_5 | 7.3% |
| exact_6 | 3.2% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.5% | draw | 41.0% | away | 18.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.7% | under_0.5 | 30.3% | over_1.5 | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.5% | over_2.5 | 11.9% | under_2.5 | 88.1% |
btts
| yes | 18.6% | no | 81.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 30.3% | exact_1 | 36.2% | exact_2 | 21.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.6% | exact_4plus | 3.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.3% | draw | 39.0% | away | 26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.1% | under_0.5 | 25.9% | over_1.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.9% | over_2.5 | 15.5% | under_2.5 | 84.5% |
btts
| yes | 23.9% | no | 76.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 32.4% | H/D | 6.0% | H/A | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.1% | D/D | 16.0% | D/A | 11.0% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 3.8% | A/A | 13.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.7% | under_7.5 | 20.3% | over_8.5 | 69.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.5% | over_9.5 | 58.1% | under_9.5 | 41.9% |
| over_10.5 | 46.4% | under_10.5 | 53.7% | over_11.5 | 35.3% |
| under_11.5 | 64.7% | over_12.5 | 25.7% | under_12.5 | 74.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.4% | under_3.5 | 21.6% | over_4.5 | 64.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 35.7% | over_5.5 | 49.3% | under_5.5 | 50.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 65.9% | under_3.5 | 34.1% | over_4.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.0% | over_5.5 | 33.5% | under_5.5 | 66.5% |
most
| home | 55.3% | draw | 10.3% | away | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.3% | away_+3.5 | 74.7% | home_-1.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.4% | home_-0.5 | 55.3% | away_+0.5 | 44.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.6% | away_-0.5 | 34.4% | home_+1.5 | 74.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.2% | home_+3.5 | 88.5% | away_-3.5 | 11.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.0% | under_22.5 | 36.0% | over_24.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.4% | over_26.5 | 39.3% | under_26.5 | 60.7% |
| over_28.5 | 28.3% | under_28.5 | 71.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.4% | under_10.5 | 29.6% | over_12.5 | 53.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.5% | over_14.5 | 37.0% | under_14.5 | 63.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 59.1% | under_10.5 | 40.9% | over_12.5 | 41.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 59.0% | over_14.5 | 25.6% | under_14.5 | 74.4% |
most
| home | 55.6% | draw | 6.2% | away | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 31.0% | away_+4.5 | 69.0% | home_-2.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 57.1% | home_-0.5 | 55.6% | away_+0.5 | 44.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.8% | away_-0.5 | 38.2% | home_+2.5 | 73.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.8% | home_+4.5 | 82.5% | away_-4.5 | 17.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 67.3% | under_6.5 | 32.7% | over_7.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.7% | over_8.5 | 41.6% | under_8.5 | 58.4% |
| over_9.5 | 30.2% | under_9.5 | 69.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.5% | under_3.5 | 38.5% | over_4.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.2% | over_5.5 | 28.7% | under_5.5 | 71.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.1% | under_3.5 | 50.9% | over_4.5 | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.6% | over_5.5 | 18.2% | under_5.5 | 81.8% |
most
| home | 52.3% | draw | 13.0% | away | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.3% | away_+2.5 | 72.7% | home_-0.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.7% | home_+0.5 | 65.3% | away_-0.5 | 34.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.5% | away_-2.5 | 14.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 77.8% | under_2.5 | 22.2% | over_3.5 | 58.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 41.2% | over_4.5 | 39.3% | under_4.5 | 60.7% |
| over_5.5 | 23.3% | under_5.5 | 76.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 52.6% | under_1.5 | 47.4% | over_2.5 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 74.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 68.0% | under_1.5 | 32.0% | over_2.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 58.3% |
most
| home | 29.2% | draw | 19.7% | away | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 14.4% | away_+1.5 | 85.6% | home_-0.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.8% | home_+0.5 | 48.8% | away_-0.5 | 51.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 68.5% | away_-1.5 | 31.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 57.5% | under_20.5 | 42.5% | over_22.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 58.3% | over_24.5 | 27.6% | under_24.5 | 72.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 50.6% | under_9.5 | 49.4% | over_11.5 | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 71.3% | over_13.5 | 13.5% | under_13.5 | 86.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 72.7% | under_9.5 | 27.3% | over_11.5 | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 48.2% | over_13.5 | 31.6% | under_13.5 | 68.4% |
most
| home | 30.0% | draw | 7.4% | away | 62.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 13.0% | away_+3.5 | 87.1% | home_-0.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.0% | home_+2.5 | 53.3% | away_-2.5 | 46.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 5.3% | no | 94.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 0.8% | no | 99.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.6% | no | 95.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Bristol City predictions · Watford predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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