ChampionshipCardiff vs Charlton Athletic Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 58.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 81.4% for over 7.5 to 28.0% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.0%. On the corner count, Cardiff are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 58.6%, with a level count at 9.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 9.5 corners | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 11.5 corners | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
81.1%
68.0%
53.4%
65.1%
48.1%
32.7%
Corner handicap
| Cardiff line | Cardiff | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 28.4% | 71.6% |
| -1.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| -0.5 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| +0.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
This season (2026/27)
8.1Cardiff corners won per game4.7Cardiff corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Cardiff.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
60.6%Over 9.5 corners68.0%Cardiff over 4.5 corners48.1%Charlton Athletic over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Cardiff over 4.5 corners sits at 68.0% and Charlton Athletic at 48.1%.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Cardiff vs Charlton Athletic?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 60.6% for Cardiff vs Charlton Athletic.
Which team will win the corner count in Cardiff vs Charlton Athletic?
The model rates Cardiff to win the corner count at 58.6%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 1,505 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Corners actually happened 62.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
