AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
BrightonBrightonLDWWW
Full time5-0Sun, 18 Oct 202618/1014:00UK12°C · Rain
Crystal PalaceCrystal PalaceLWLDW

Brighton 5-0 Crystal Palace cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.5%

Result

Brighton5-0Crystal Palace
3 yellow cardsBrighton 2, Crystal Palace 1
Over 3.5

We called Over 3.5 at 50.5% and it missed (3 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Rob Jones

Recorded match referee.

Rob Jones in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 247 7
Goals 2.55 3.43
Yellow cards 3.48 2.71
Red cards 0.08 0.00
Corners 10.0 9.3
Fouls 24.4 26.4
Both teams scored 49% 57%
Over 2.5 goals 47% 57%
Home wins 45% 29%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Hull vs Brentford 1-1 2 Yes 1 0 11 19
18 Oct 2026 Brighton vs Crystal Palace 5-0 5 No 3 0 13 24
20 Sep 2026 Manchester City vs Sunderland 5-3 8 Yes 1 0 11 28
13 Sep 2026 Sheffield United vs WolvesChampionship 0-1 1 No 3 0 9 27
5 Sep 2026 Newcastle vs Bournemouth 2-2 4 Yes 5 0 7 36
28 Aug 2026 Wrexham vs BirminghamChampionship 1-2 3 Yes 3 0 9 22
22 Aug 2026 Nottingham Forest vs Leeds 0-1 1 No 3 0 5 29
24 May 2026 Fulham vs Newcastle 2-0 2 No 4 0 12 19
3 May 2026 Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace 3-0 3 No 2 0 8 21
25 Apr 2026 Birmingham vs Bristol CityChampionship 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 11 18

Rob Jones referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Brighton vs Crystal Palace. Slightly more cards are projected for Crystal Palace for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.4% 28.6%
3.5 cards 50.5% 49.5%
4.5 cards 31.2% 68.8%
5.5 cards 16.9% 83.1%

Who picks up more cards

Brighton
32.8%
Level
21.3%
Crystal Palace
45.9%

Team cards lines

Brighton

Over 1.5
50.1%
Over 2.5
23.8%

Crystal Palace

Over 1.5
59.7%
Over 2.5
32.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Brighton's; Crystal Palace gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Brighton line Brighton Crystal Palace
-1.5 16.2% 83.8%
-0.5 32.8% 67.2%
+0.5 54.1% 45.9%
+1.5 74.0% 26.1%

Red card

Any red card17.3%
Brighton red card4.9%
Crystal Palace red card13.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 55.2% 44.8%
22.5 fouls 38.9% 61.1%
24.5 fouls 24.8% 75.2%
BrightonBrighton

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Brighton at home and Crystal Palace away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
Statistic
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Cards per game at this venue
3.0
1.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.7
0.7

Yellow cards per game
2.2
1.3

Matches with card data
6
6
Red cards this season
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 50.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.4% for over 2.5 to 16.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.5%. On the card count, Crystal Palace are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 21.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Brighton over 1.5 cards sits at 50.1% and Crystal Palace at 59.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.3% (Brighton 4.9%, Crystal Palace 13.0%). This season Brighton have averaged 2.3 cards a game and Crystal Palace 1.5.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

50.5%Over 3.5 cards
17.3%Any red card
45.9%Most cards: Crystal Palace
50.1%Brighton over 1.5 cards
59.7%Crystal Palace over 1.5 cards
38.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianCrystal Palace are the pick to collect more cards at 45.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 50.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
BrightonBrighton

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
Statistic
Brighton
Crystal Palace
cards per game
2.3
1.5

fouls per game
12.8
9.8

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.5% for Brighton vs Crystal Palace.
Will there be a red card in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Before kickoff, the model rated Crystal Palace to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Premier LeagueBrighton fixtures and statsCrystal Palace fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.