AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
BrightonBrightonLDWWW
Full time5-0Sun, 18 Oct 202618/1014:00UK12°C · Rain
Crystal PalaceCrystal PalaceLWLDW

Brighton 5-0 Crystal Palace corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined50.1%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined49.9%

Result

Brighton5-0Crystal Palace
13 cornersBrighton 8, Crystal Palace 5
Under 9.5

We called Under 9.5 at 50.1% and it missed (13 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners49.9%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Brighton.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 72.9% 27.1%
8.5 corners 61.7% 38.3%
9.5 corners 49.9% 50.1%
10.5 corners 38.5% 61.5%
11.5 corners 28.5% 71.5%
12.5 corners 20.1% 79.9%

Who wins the corner count

Brighton
54.3%
Level
10.1%
Crystal Palace
35.7%

Team corners lines

Brighton

Over 3.5
72.6%
Over 4.5
57.9%
Over 5.5
43.4%

Crystal Palace

Over 3.5
60.0%
Over 4.5
43.6%
Over 5.5
29.4%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Brighton's; Crystal Palace gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Brighton line Brighton Crystal Palace
-1.5 44.0% 56.1%
-0.5 54.3% 45.7%
+0.5 64.3% 35.7%
+1.5 73.5% 26.5%
BrightonBrighton

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Brighton at home and Crystal Palace away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
Statistic
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Corners won per game at this venue
5.7
1.3

Corners conceded per game at this venue
4.7
5.0

Matches with corner data
6
6

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 49.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.9% for over 7.5 to 20.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.9%. Between the two sides, Brighton are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.3%, with a level count at 10.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Brighton over 4.5 corners sits at 57.9% and Crystal Palace at 43.6%. This season Brighton have averaged 5.3 corners won a game and Crystal Palace 2.8.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

49.9%Over 9.5 corners
54.3%Most corners: Brighton
57.9%Brighton over 4.5 corners
43.6%Crystal Palace over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.9% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderBrighton are the pick to win the corner count at 54.3%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 49.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
BrightonBrighton

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
Statistic
Brighton
Crystal Palace
corners won per game
5.3
2.8

corners conceded per game
5.0
5.3

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 49.9% for Brighton vs Crystal Palace.
Which team will win the corner count in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Before kickoff, the model rated Brighton to win the corner count at 54.3%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Brighton and Crystal Palace average this season?
Brighton have won 5.3 corners a game this season and Crystal Palace 2.8.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Premier League, Corners

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Corner predictions today

Related

Premier LeagueBrighton fixtures and statsCrystal Palace fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.