AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
Bayern MunichBayern MunichWWDWW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1017:30UK7°C · Cloudy
DortmundDortmundWWDDW

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Bayern Munich3.64

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Dortmund2.10

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Bayern Munich have created 3.64 xG and scored 3.33 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Dortmund have created 2.10 xG and scored 1.67 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

Bayern MunichBayern Munich

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

DortmundDortmund
Statistic
Bayern Munich
Dortmund
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
3.64
2.10

xG conceded per game
0.87
0.96

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–4 · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

Bayern MunichBayern MunichLast 5
W
Win · 2-1
W
Win · 7-0
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 6-1
W
Win · 3-1

4 wins · 1 draw · 0 losses

DortmundDortmundLast 5
W
Win · 3-0
W
Win · 1-0
D
Draw · 2-2
D
Draw · 0-0
W
Win · 1-0

3 wins · 2 draws · 0 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2Bayern MunichBayern Munich wins
2Draws
1DortmundDortmund wins
3.2Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
DortmundDortmund
2 – 3
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
2 – 1
DortmundDortmund
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
2 – 2
DortmundDortmund
DortmundDortmund
1 – 1
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
0 – 2
DortmundDortmund

Match outlook

PickBayern Munich66.5%
Draw17.0%
Dortmund16.6%

The model leans Bayern Munich to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

66.5%Favoured: Bayern Munich
62.8%Both Teams to Score
68.1%Over 2.5 goals

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

Bayern MunichBayern Munich (1)
Harry Kane
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
60.6%
1.65
1+ shot on target
84.3%
1.19
2+ shots
89.1%
1.12
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots4.46
On target2.19
Goals1.10
DortmundDortmund (1)
Serhou Guirassy
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
43.0%
2.33
1+ shot on target
70.5%
1.42
2+ shots
76.1%
1.31
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.13
On target1.39
Goals0.64

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaBayern Munich fixtures and statsDortmund fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.