Bayern MunichBayern MunichWWDWW
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DortmundDortmundWWDDWBayern Munich vs Dortmund correct score prediction
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Model read
No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.
Conviction: Open
Most likely · 9.6%2-1
Correct score
Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.
Rows = Bayern Munich goals, columns = Dortmund goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9.6%.
No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Darker cells carry more probability.
Most likely scorelines
- 2-19.6%
- 1-18.6%
- 2-08.2%
- 3-17.4%
- 1-06.6%
- 3-06.4%
- 2-25.6%
- 1-24.8%
Score probability grid
| H / A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 1.7% | 2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Rows: Bayern Munich · Columns: Dortmund
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
W
W
D
W
W
4 wins · 1 draw · 0 losses
W
W
D
D
W
3 wins · 2 draws · 0 losses
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 9.6% at 2-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Bayern Munich have averaged 4.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, Dortmund 1.4 and 0.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 68.1% for over 2.5 and 86.9% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
On the goals side, the model sees 68.1% for three or more goals and 86.9% for at least two, painting a high-scoring picture. With Bayern Munich favoured at 66.5%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Players to watch
Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.
Bayern MunichBayern Munich (1)
Harry Kane
DortmundDortmund (1)
Serhou Guirassy
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Bayern Munich vs Dortmund?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Bundesliga, Correct Score
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
