La Liga
Ath Bilbao vs 
Alaves Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 63.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 80.4% for over 2.5 to 28.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.5%. Head to head on cards, Alaves are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.6%, with a level count at 19.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 80.4% | 19.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 28.2% | 71.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
58.5%
32.2%
67.9%
42.5%
Card handicap
| Ath Bilbao line | Ath Bilbao | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.1% | 81.9% |
| -0.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| +0.5 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| +1.5 | 70.6% | 29.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 80.1% | 19.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 55.4% | 44.6% |
This season (2026/27)
2.2Ath Bilbao cards per game10.6Ath Bilbao fouls per game2.6Alaves cards per game15.0Alaves fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ath Bilbao vs Alaves. Slightly more cards are projected for Alaves for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
63.1%Over 3.5 cards21.4%Any red card58.5%Ath Bilbao over 1.5 cards67.9%Alaves over 1.5 cards68.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Ath Bilbao over 1.5 cards sits at 58.5% and Alaves at 67.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.4% (Ath Bilbao 16.7%, Alaves 5.7%). This season Ath Bilbao have averaged 2.2 cards a game and Alaves 2.6.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Ath Bilbao vs Alaves?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 63.1% for Ath Bilbao vs Alaves.
Will there be a red card in Ath Bilbao vs Alaves?
The model rates a red card for either side at 21.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ath Bilbao vs Alaves?
The model rates Alaves to pick up more cards at 47.6%, with a level count at 19.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,111 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
