La Liga
Celta vs 
Santander Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 60.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 78.7% for over 2.5 to 25.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.9%. Between the two sides, Santander are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.9%, with a level count at 19.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 78.7% | 21.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 25.9% | 74.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
57.1%
30.9%
66.0%
40.3%
Card handicap
| Celta line | Celta | Santander |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.2% | 81.9% |
| -0.5 | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| +0.5 | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| +1.5 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 79.6% | 20.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 67.9% | 32.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 54.7% | 45.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.7Celta cards per game10.3Celta fouls per game2.4Santander cards per game15.2Santander fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Celta vs Santander. Slightly more cards are projected for Santander for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
60.7%Over 3.5 cards28.7%Any red card57.1%Celta over 1.5 cards66.0%Santander over 1.5 cards67.9%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Celta over 1.5 cards sits at 57.1% and Santander at 66.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 28.7% (Celta 14.4%, Santander 16.7%). This season Celta have averaged 1.7 cards a game and Santander 2.4.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Celta vs Santander?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 60.7% for Celta vs Santander.
Will there be a red card in Celta vs Santander?
The model rates a red card for either side at 28.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Celta vs Santander?
The model rates Santander to pick up more cards at 46.9%, with a level count at 19.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,111 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
