La Liga
Osasuna vs 
Vallecano Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 67.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 83.6% for over 2.5 to 33.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.7%. On the card count, Vallecano are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 18.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 33.0% | 67.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.3%
36.2%
70.7%
45.9%
Card handicap
| Osasuna line | Osasuna | Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.2% | 80.8% |
| -0.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| +0.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| +1.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 77.9% | 22.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 52.2% | 47.8% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Osasuna cards per game13.0Osasuna fouls per game2.4Vallecano cards per game14.2Vallecano fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Osasuna vs Vallecano. Slightly more cards are projected for Vallecano for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
67.7%Over 3.5 cards27.1%Any red card62.3%Osasuna over 1.5 cards70.7%Vallecano over 1.5 cards65.7%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Osasuna over 1.5 cards sits at 62.3% and Vallecano at 70.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 27.1% (Osasuna 9.3%, Vallecano 19.6%). This season Osasuna have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Vallecano 2.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Osasuna vs Vallecano?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 67.7% for Osasuna vs Vallecano.
Will there be a red card in Osasuna vs Vallecano?
The model rates a red card for either side at 27.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Osasuna vs Vallecano?
The model rates Vallecano to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 18.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,111 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
